Outlook might be changing ????

Nigel
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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by Nigel » Sun Nov 10, 2013 2:19 pm

yep lets hope for the latter 1990,s style, nothing unusual in that. Any more greenland blocking and we can start to be fairly certain we have a climate pattern shift caused by global warming, and not a good one.

Fantastic day here today , warm sun, no wind, patio in t-shirt.
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Adam D
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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by Adam D » Sun Nov 10, 2013 4:52 pm

Sunny, but very cold up here today.

Frost and ice did not lift from the shaded bits - my drive is like an ice rink!


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cordyman
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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by cordyman » Sun Nov 10, 2013 5:51 pm

What a supurb day, with a gorgeous foggy morning, and wall to wall sunshine, high of 7*c though LOL! I'd prefer a bit of this though to all the rain, cloud and gloop, should dry things out a bit. icon_salut


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stephenprudence
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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by stephenprudence » Sun Nov 10, 2013 5:55 pm

Excellent shots Cordy, looks very serene! Shows off valley cooling very well!

Today there was what felt like rather strong sunshine, and that helped the temperature up to 11.4C. Temperatures fell to 3.2C last night just after midnight.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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stephenprudence
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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by stephenprudence » Sun Nov 10, 2013 6:03 pm

12z is actually sort of like the 90s, a few fleeting light frosts, but mostly frost free. The northerly with the rather powerful isolated polar vortex reminds be of the mild years
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


otorongo
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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by otorongo » Sun Nov 10, 2013 6:36 pm

I've been away for only 9 days and it looks like things have changed dramatically. Before leaving, 18C was nice, now you guys are saying 9C is nice.

The landscapes lit by this low sun looked so weird from the airplane. In Rio the sun was 83 deg. at solar noon. Welcome to the bad latitudes... the land with no middays, only early mornings, late evenings and diabolically long nights :x

Let's hope things remain frost-free at least.


Tom2006
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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by Tom2006 » Sun Nov 10, 2013 7:56 pm

stephenprudence wrote:12z is actually sort of like the 90s, a few fleeting light frosts, but mostly frost free. The northerly with the rather powerful isolated polar vortex reminds be of the mild years

Agree so far so good.
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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by Conifers » Sun Nov 10, 2013 9:53 pm

Old weather saying . . .
November ice to support a duck,

The rest of the winter is slush and muck
i.e., a cold spell in November is likely to be followed by a mild, wet winter

Here's to hoping it's true! :D Surprisingly often that it does work out, better than most weather sayings (except in the 2010-11 winter, it didn't icon_aaargh ).

For proof, today's ducks on ice . . .
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stephenprudence
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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by stephenprudence » Sun Nov 10, 2013 10:15 pm

So for Northumberland and Scotland, it's going to be a mild winter, for the rest of us, we'll be frozen in by the beast from the east :lol:
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by Dave Brown » Sun Nov 10, 2013 10:42 pm

stephenprudence wrote: for the rest of us, we'll be frozen in by the beast from the east :lol:
I won't have swearing on this forum, wash your mouth out :lol:
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Conifers
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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by Conifers » Sun Nov 10, 2013 10:48 pm

stephenprudence wrote:So for Northumberland and Scotland, it's going to be a mild winter, for the rest of us, we'll be frozen in by the beast from the east :lol:
There were several winters in the mid 1980s where exactly that happened icon_thumright

Northern Britain bathed in mild southwesterly atlantic air, and southern England in frozen with east winds.


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cordyman
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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by cordyman » Sun Nov 10, 2013 11:04 pm

stephenprudence wrote:Excellent shots Cordy, looks very serene! Shows off valley cooling very well!

Today there was what felt like rather strong sunshine, and that helped the temperature up to 11.4C. Temperatures fell to 3.2C last night just after midnight.

Tell me more about valley cooling Stephen, is this the same effect you'd see in a frost hollow icon_scratch Was gorgeous this morning drunken_smilie1


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stephenprudence
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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by stephenprudence » Sun Nov 10, 2013 11:07 pm

yes, exactly, as colder air is denser and heavier than warm air, it falls and so it nestles in the lowest points available. Also the humidity is usually highest too, therefore fog occurs. Valleys have a higher incidence of freezing fog than straight frost, in my experience
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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stephenprudence
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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by stephenprudence » Mon Nov 11, 2013 7:24 am

It does look like things are starting to swing in favour of cold, in a not particularly good way. Although there is no Greenland High, there is a Greenland low pressure system allowing for the Siberian High to hold steadfast introducing easterlies to the UK. It's a fair way off, but cold seems to have a habit of materialising from such time frames, and I have no doubt this one will. It'll give basically frosty weather with ocassional ice days. Nothing severe but this scenario would be enough to damage/kill unprotected plants (that needed it).

Not another 2010 (yet), but more like another 2001/2005 perhaps depending on severity, at least for late November.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


Nigel
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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by Nigel » Mon Nov 11, 2013 7:31 am

stephenprudence wrote:It does look like things are starting to swing in favour of cold, in a not particularly good way. Although there is no Greenland High, there is a Greenland low pressure system allowing for the Siberian High to hold steadfast introducing easterlies to the UK. It's a fair way off, but cold seems to have a habit of materialising from such time frames, and I have no doubt this one will. It'll give basically frosty weather with ocassional ice days. Nothing severe but this scenario would be enough to damage/kill unprotected plants (that needed it).

Not another 2010 (yet), but more like another 2001/2005 perhaps depending on severity, at least for late November.
I dont see any resemblance to 2010, but agree first cold plunge of winter looks like its on way for last third of the month, but thats not abnormal. The weather has a very 90,s look to it right now.
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