Outlook might be changing ????

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stephenprudence
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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by stephenprudence » Mon Nov 11, 2013 9:14 am

The closest analogy I see is 2001 and 2005 but the latter was much less severe than the former, despite similar pattern. Lets see what transpires.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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Dave Brown
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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by Dave Brown » Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:22 am

Current weather reminds me of summer 2012 apart from colder. Rain, rain, showers, showers, rain :roll:
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2013-11-11 07-17-32 Sunrise.jpg
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harryc
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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by harryc » Mon Nov 11, 2013 8:54 pm

As Stephen has hinted looks like the weather might be turning next week originating from a northerly direction, if so severe overnight frosts look likely.

H


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cordyman
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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by cordyman » Mon Nov 11, 2013 9:51 pm

Currently rain and a balmy 13. Lovely icon_thumleft


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billdango
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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by billdango » Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:17 pm

Quite mild down here in Southampton today. :D :D

No frost last night as it didn't get any colder then about +5.6c. :D :D :D

A lot of damp drizzly weather today with no sun but a high of +14c.

Pity the rest of the winter won't stay like this then we wouldn't have to mess around wrapping our exotics. :(

billdango :D


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cordyman
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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by cordyman » Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:46 pm

billdango wrote:Quite mild down here in Southampton today. :D :D

No frost last night as it didn't get any colder then about +5.6c. :D :D :D

A lot of damp drizzly weather today with no sun but a high of +14c.

Pity the rest of the winter won't stay like this then we wouldn't have to mess around wrapping our exotics. :(

billdango :D

noooooooo want some frosty dryness Bill, can't do anything outdoors in this monsoon :lol:


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stephenprudence
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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by stephenprudence » Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:48 pm

The latest model output shows how things may turn out differently than we expect. Obviously it's not for certain, but when a model output shows a cold spell, you have to take it at its potential. The potential I am seeing, suggest prolonged cold, frosty and icy weather as one variation. I understand the sceptical point of view that there is no certainty within the weather, and the forecasts are rarely right, but broadly speaking, I admit I am a little worried about the way things are heading now, for the first time for a few years, I genuinely worry we could be on the edge of a genuinely cold winter (or part of it). Premature perhaps, but I'm still working out the ins and outs of what will occur, but to me, it doesn't look good. It looks particularly bad for central and northern areas, in my opinion.

It's a long way out, but I don't think the consistent forecast for cold is wrong by any means... my worry is based around the potential introduction of the Greenland High after the Scandinavian high.. if those ingredients come together, there's nothing you can do but hope for the best! Plus it's just too early, in November.. too much of winter ahead for plants to recover from the prolonged episode of cold!!

ps the above is just an alert just in case we think this November/December period will be a comfortable walk in the park icon_thumright
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by Nigel » Tue Nov 12, 2013 7:23 am

Stephen this has been a recurring pattern in early winter in the last few years , as you know I believe its the lack of arctic sea ice. Our threat is from early winter cold , because once the arctic sea ice reforms the high pressure tends to dissipate, so by mid december the cold starts to break down.
I still think this year has a 90,s look to it, but the crux will come in last third of this month , if the greenland block has not taken control by end November ,i think the threat will have passed us by.
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Tom2006
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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by Tom2006 » Tue Nov 12, 2013 7:51 am

The models are split with some saying cold and some saying more of the same. Be prepared for the worst and hopefully the protection wont be required.
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Dave Brown
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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by Dave Brown » Tue Nov 12, 2013 8:43 am

stephenprudence wrote:The latest model output shows how things may turn out differently than we expect. Obviously it's not for certain, but when a model output shows a cold spell, you have to take it at its potential. The potential I am seeing, suggest prolonged cold, frosty and icy weather as one variation. I understand the sceptical point of view that there is no certainty within the weather, and the forecasts are rarely right, but broadly speaking, I admit I am a little worried about the way things are heading now, for the first time for a few years, I genuinely worry we could be on the edge of a genuinely cold winter (or part of it). Premature perhaps, but I'm still working out the ins and outs of what will occur, but to me, it doesn't look good. It looks particularly bad for central and northern areas, in my opinion.

It's a long way out, but I don't think the consistent forecast for cold is wrong by any means... my worry is based around the potential introduction of the Greenland High after the Scandinavian high.. if those ingredients come together, there's nothing you can do but hope for the best! Plus it's just too early, in November.. too much of winter ahead for plants to recover from the prolonged episode of cold!!

ps the above is just an alert just in case we think this November/December period will be a comfortable walk in the park icon_thumright
Stephen, I think we need to have some sense of caution thrown in here. If we were told in May that July would see consistently 30C plus, we'd all laugh, and say "I'll believe it when I see it". Yes, once in every 150 years it may be possible, but I wouldn't change what I did 1 or 2 months ahead as a result of models. Same is true here, every winter has a potential to be a 150 year winter from hell, but I won't do anything until I start to get warnings from the Met and BBC. :wink:
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allangreenbean
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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by allangreenbean » Tue Nov 12, 2013 8:52 am

It only seems like yesterday we were talking about last winter.

Looking forward to relatively dry sunny but cold winter followed by damp spring.


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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by Kristen » Tue Nov 12, 2013 12:19 pm

Just wanted to say how much I enjoy reading the views and opinions you guys discuss and debate. Keep it up please, regardless of whether you may feel you are scaremongering, I very much enjoy hearing what you reading of the tea-leaves is. I make up my mind based on the general consensus, and plan accordingly. Very cold, or mild, weather won't make a difference to my strategy for how I run the garden over all, but it does to my short-term tactics :)
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Deedee
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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by Deedee » Tue Nov 12, 2013 12:53 pm

I dont usually read weather reports on HTUk because to be honest they depress me, there's allways someone that disagrees with the optomist :) we all protect our plants anyway so what will be will be...

PS, Those of you who live down south, move up north, its gorgeous here :mrgreen:


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stephenprudence
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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by stephenprudence » Tue Nov 12, 2013 1:26 pm

Well Im only saying what I see (being the obvious candidate for forum pessimist). There are ways of getting rid of me if my dose of potential reality, is just too real. :lol: :wink:
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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stephenprudence
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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by stephenprudence » Tue Nov 12, 2013 1:29 pm

Dave Brown wrote:
stephenprudence wrote:The latest model output shows how things may turn out differently than we expect. Obviously it's not for certain, but when a model output shows a cold spell, you have to take it at its potential. The potential I am seeing, suggest prolonged cold, frosty and icy weather as one variation. I understand the sceptical point of view that there is no certainty within the weather, and the forecasts are rarely right, but broadly speaking, I admit I am a little worried about the way things are heading now, for the first time for a few years, I genuinely worry we could be on the edge of a genuinely cold winter (or part of it). Premature perhaps, but I'm still working out the ins and outs of what will occur, but to me, it doesn't look good. It looks particularly bad for central and northern areas, in my opinion.

It's a long way out, but I don't think the consistent forecast for cold is wrong by any means... my worry is based around the potential introduction of the Greenland High after the Scandinavian high.. if those ingredients come together, there's nothing you can do but hope for the best! Plus it's just too early, in November.. too much of winter ahead for plants to recover from the prolonged episode of cold!!

ps the above is just an alert just in case we think this November/December period will be a comfortable walk in the park icon_thumright
Stephen, I think we need to have some sense of caution thrown in here. If we were told in May that July would see consistently 30C plus, we'd all laugh, and say "I'll believe it when I see it". Yes, once in every 150 years it may be possible, but I wouldn't change what I did 1 or 2 months ahead as a result of models. Same is true here, every winter has a potential to be a 150 year winter from hell, but I won't do anything until I start to get warnings from the Met and BBC. :wink:
The BBC and METO won't give warnings per se, however I get what you mean.

I don't even know why I'm bothered anyway, my gardens hardy now, most of it is not even exotic anymore (thanks to my dad). The only one I'm of concern with is the side border but that'll be ok.

So yes, if it was -7C tomorrow night, it actually wouldn't have any effect of my garden whatsoever.. perhaps deep down I'm concerned for all.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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