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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Posted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 9:14 am
by stephenprudence
The closest analogy I see is 2001 and 2005 but the latter was much less severe than the former, despite similar pattern. Lets see what transpires.

Re: Outlook remains excellent

Posted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:22 am
by Dave Brown
Current weather reminds me of summer 2012 apart from colder. Rain, rain, showers, showers, rain :roll:

Re: Outlook remains excellent

Posted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 8:54 pm
by harryc
As Stephen has hinted looks like the weather might be turning next week originating from a northerly direction, if so severe overnight frosts look likely.

H

Re: Outlook remains excellent

Posted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 9:51 pm
by cordyman
Currently rain and a balmy 13. Lovely icon_thumleft

Re: Outlook remains excellent

Posted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:17 pm
by billdango
Quite mild down here in Southampton today. :D :D

No frost last night as it didn't get any colder then about +5.6c. :D :D :D

A lot of damp drizzly weather today with no sun but a high of +14c.

Pity the rest of the winter won't stay like this then we wouldn't have to mess around wrapping our exotics. :(

billdango :D

Re: Outlook remains excellent

Posted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:46 pm
by cordyman
billdango wrote:Quite mild down here in Southampton today. :D :D

No frost last night as it didn't get any colder then about +5.6c. :D :D :D

A lot of damp drizzly weather today with no sun but a high of +14c.

Pity the rest of the winter won't stay like this then we wouldn't have to mess around wrapping our exotics. :(

billdango :D

noooooooo want some frosty dryness Bill, can't do anything outdoors in this monsoon :lol:

Re: Outlook remains excellent

Posted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:48 pm
by stephenprudence
The latest model output shows how things may turn out differently than we expect. Obviously it's not for certain, but when a model output shows a cold spell, you have to take it at its potential. The potential I am seeing, suggest prolonged cold, frosty and icy weather as one variation. I understand the sceptical point of view that there is no certainty within the weather, and the forecasts are rarely right, but broadly speaking, I admit I am a little worried about the way things are heading now, for the first time for a few years, I genuinely worry we could be on the edge of a genuinely cold winter (or part of it). Premature perhaps, but I'm still working out the ins and outs of what will occur, but to me, it doesn't look good. It looks particularly bad for central and northern areas, in my opinion.

It's a long way out, but I don't think the consistent forecast for cold is wrong by any means... my worry is based around the potential introduction of the Greenland High after the Scandinavian high.. if those ingredients come together, there's nothing you can do but hope for the best! Plus it's just too early, in November.. too much of winter ahead for plants to recover from the prolonged episode of cold!!

ps the above is just an alert just in case we think this November/December period will be a comfortable walk in the park icon_thumright

Re: Outlook remains excellent

Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 7:23 am
by Nigel
Stephen this has been a recurring pattern in early winter in the last few years , as you know I believe its the lack of arctic sea ice. Our threat is from early winter cold , because once the arctic sea ice reforms the high pressure tends to dissipate, so by mid december the cold starts to break down.
I still think this year has a 90,s look to it, but the crux will come in last third of this month , if the greenland block has not taken control by end November ,i think the threat will have passed us by.

Re: Outlook remains excellent

Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 7:51 am
by Tom2006
The models are split with some saying cold and some saying more of the same. Be prepared for the worst and hopefully the protection wont be required.

Re: Outlook remains excellent

Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 8:43 am
by Dave Brown
stephenprudence wrote:The latest model output shows how things may turn out differently than we expect. Obviously it's not for certain, but when a model output shows a cold spell, you have to take it at its potential. The potential I am seeing, suggest prolonged cold, frosty and icy weather as one variation. I understand the sceptical point of view that there is no certainty within the weather, and the forecasts are rarely right, but broadly speaking, I admit I am a little worried about the way things are heading now, for the first time for a few years, I genuinely worry we could be on the edge of a genuinely cold winter (or part of it). Premature perhaps, but I'm still working out the ins and outs of what will occur, but to me, it doesn't look good. It looks particularly bad for central and northern areas, in my opinion.

It's a long way out, but I don't think the consistent forecast for cold is wrong by any means... my worry is based around the potential introduction of the Greenland High after the Scandinavian high.. if those ingredients come together, there's nothing you can do but hope for the best! Plus it's just too early, in November.. too much of winter ahead for plants to recover from the prolonged episode of cold!!

ps the above is just an alert just in case we think this November/December period will be a comfortable walk in the park icon_thumright
Stephen, I think we need to have some sense of caution thrown in here. If we were told in May that July would see consistently 30C plus, we'd all laugh, and say "I'll believe it when I see it". Yes, once in every 150 years it may be possible, but I wouldn't change what I did 1 or 2 months ahead as a result of models. Same is true here, every winter has a potential to be a 150 year winter from hell, but I won't do anything until I start to get warnings from the Met and BBC. :wink:

Re: Outlook remains excellent

Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 8:52 am
by allangreenbean
It only seems like yesterday we were talking about last winter.

Looking forward to relatively dry sunny but cold winter followed by damp spring.

Re: Outlook remains excellent

Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 12:19 pm
by Kristen
Just wanted to say how much I enjoy reading the views and opinions you guys discuss and debate. Keep it up please, regardless of whether you may feel you are scaremongering, I very much enjoy hearing what you reading of the tea-leaves is. I make up my mind based on the general consensus, and plan accordingly. Very cold, or mild, weather won't make a difference to my strategy for how I run the garden over all, but it does to my short-term tactics :)

Re: Outlook remains excellent

Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 12:53 pm
by Deedee
I dont usually read weather reports on HTUk because to be honest they depress me, there's allways someone that disagrees with the optomist :) we all protect our plants anyway so what will be will be...

PS, Those of you who live down south, move up north, its gorgeous here :mrgreen:

Re: Outlook remains excellent

Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 1:26 pm
by stephenprudence
Well Im only saying what I see (being the obvious candidate for forum pessimist). There are ways of getting rid of me if my dose of potential reality, is just too real. :lol: :wink:

Re: Outlook remains excellent

Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 1:29 pm
by stephenprudence
Dave Brown wrote:
stephenprudence wrote:The latest model output shows how things may turn out differently than we expect. Obviously it's not for certain, but when a model output shows a cold spell, you have to take it at its potential. The potential I am seeing, suggest prolonged cold, frosty and icy weather as one variation. I understand the sceptical point of view that there is no certainty within the weather, and the forecasts are rarely right, but broadly speaking, I admit I am a little worried about the way things are heading now, for the first time for a few years, I genuinely worry we could be on the edge of a genuinely cold winter (or part of it). Premature perhaps, but I'm still working out the ins and outs of what will occur, but to me, it doesn't look good. It looks particularly bad for central and northern areas, in my opinion.

It's a long way out, but I don't think the consistent forecast for cold is wrong by any means... my worry is based around the potential introduction of the Greenland High after the Scandinavian high.. if those ingredients come together, there's nothing you can do but hope for the best! Plus it's just too early, in November.. too much of winter ahead for plants to recover from the prolonged episode of cold!!

ps the above is just an alert just in case we think this November/December period will be a comfortable walk in the park icon_thumright
Stephen, I think we need to have some sense of caution thrown in here. If we were told in May that July would see consistently 30C plus, we'd all laugh, and say "I'll believe it when I see it". Yes, once in every 150 years it may be possible, but I wouldn't change what I did 1 or 2 months ahead as a result of models. Same is true here, every winter has a potential to be a 150 year winter from hell, but I won't do anything until I start to get warnings from the Met and BBC. :wink:
The BBC and METO won't give warnings per se, however I get what you mean.

I don't even know why I'm bothered anyway, my gardens hardy now, most of it is not even exotic anymore (thanks to my dad). The only one I'm of concern with is the side border but that'll be ok.

So yes, if it was -7C tomorrow night, it actually wouldn't have any effect of my garden whatsoever.. perhaps deep down I'm concerned for all.