The yo-yo thread, for whence and whom it may concern.

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Yorkshire Kris
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Re: First significant cold spell of the season coming right

Post by Yorkshire Kris » Sat Nov 16, 2013 3:44 pm

I've just got this on BBC weather.
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pdid
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Re: First significant cold spell of the season coming right

Post by pdid » Sat Nov 16, 2013 4:26 pm

Mine is showing Max 6 Min 2 for Tuesday.

Thursday onward doesn't look good though, if the low lows come to fruition we'll have -4, -3, -3, -3, -4, obviously these are the extremes though. The max mins are 6, 9, 7, 8, 8 which look a little nicer :D


jezza
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Re: First significant cold spell of the season coming right

Post by jezza » Sat Nov 16, 2013 10:10 pm

I keep hearing people saying there's snow on the way but not here it aint!
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stephenprudence
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Re: First significant cold spell of the season coming right

Post by stephenprudence » Sat Nov 16, 2013 10:27 pm

Yes snow is the big uncertain, I personally don't think much snow will occur... there was originally suggestion for snow in western areas, but now this looks like it might be associated with a warm sector, so fall as rain or sleet. The surface cold spell is still very much on, and will still be prolonged.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


otorongo
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Re: First significant cold spell of the season coming right

Post by otorongo » Sat Nov 16, 2013 10:58 pm

No below-zero temps in the BBC 5-day forecast for London.
The other websites seem to have improved their outlooks too, the worst I see is a -2, and that's on Wunderground according to which we should already have had two -1's (and the lowest we've had was 1.8C). Looks like it may not be that bad in the SE, or London in particular?


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stephenprudence
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Re: First significant cold spell of the season coming right

Post by stephenprudence » Sat Nov 16, 2013 11:33 pm

winderground predictions are even worse than BBC predictions. That's why I look at the models, the GFS model has done an upgrade which is removed those OTT silly temperatures of -10C everytime we get a bit of cold air. I'd say away from the coast, the temperatures are likely to be fairly correct most of the time.

The other realistic option is to look at the Met-office text forecasts but avoid automated 5 day forecasts, they are, in general very inaccurate for most.

Wednesday night is the coldest night of next week I feel, potential for temperatures in the central/west to be -5C or so in general (lower than that in spots), Further east still a notable frost on Wednesday, but not as harsh, thereafter, it looks like with an easterly setting up, it will be much less cold for the southeast, with night minimas staying largely above 0C.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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madgav
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Re: First significant cold spell of the season coming right

Post by madgav » Sat Nov 16, 2013 11:38 pm

Oh my goodness just caught up with this thread and was horrified at the impending doom, then I looked at the forecast and found it doesn't look so bad.
Of course I realise there is much uncertainty after late this week and with high pressure around I wouldn't want to see it right over us at this time of year - if this occurred then I think significant negatives would be possible/likely. Looked at the BBC and weathercast forecasts and they both seem to suggest that the high may be a little further north with the wind turning easterly into next weekend, if that were to happen it shouldn't work out too bad here since an easterly would be blowing right off the sea which is still at 11/12C.
Of course where we would like to return to is a milder westerly flow which is hinted at only late in the runs of both the GFS and ECM.
One thing's for sure, today/tomorrow could be our last double digit maximum for a bit! Lovely day today, part cloudy @ 13C :/
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Zone 9a (1992-2013). Last 21 winters: 9b (16), 9a (1), 8b (3), 8a (1)
Average annual min/max: -4.3°C (24°F) / 26.5°C (80°F)
Absolute extremes (1992-2013): -11.6°C/11.0°F, 31.0°C/87.8°F
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Tom2006
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Re: First significant cold spell of the season coming right

Post by Tom2006 » Sat Nov 16, 2013 11:46 pm

Never believe the beeb output.
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harryc
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Re: First significant cold spell of the season coming right

Post by harryc » Sat Nov 16, 2013 11:52 pm

Tom2006 wrote:Never believe the beeb output.

Or the GFS :lol:

Seriously though does any model have as many swings within 24hrs?


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stephenprudence
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Re: First significant cold spell of the season coming right

Post by stephenprudence » Sun Nov 17, 2013 12:04 am

The most accurate model in my opinion is the relatively new Met Office model (MOGREPS), which is in my experience much more accurate than both GFS and ECMWF. That model has been hinting at easterlies, whereas the other two suggest high pressure. As I tend to favour the Met Model over those two, I'd say I'm more in favour of a colder easterly situation developing. Even the MOGREPS isn't infallible though.. but it is more consistent and accurate than any other model.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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madgav
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Re: First significant cold spell of the season coming right

Post by madgav » Sun Nov 17, 2013 12:21 am

Yea I find I can at times end up a degree or even two colder than the beeb forecast.
And I'm aware of the flack the GFS gets :)
An easterly shouldn't be too bad here, especially with November sea temps. Northerlies are generally more of a concern for me.
Zone 9a (1992-2013). Last 21 winters: 9b (16), 9a (1), 8b (3), 8a (1)
Average annual min/max: -4.3°C (24°F) / 26.5°C (80°F)
Absolute extremes (1992-2013): -11.6°C/11.0°F, 31.0°C/87.8°F
Web: http://www.madgav.org
Weather: http://212.159.44.239/data/


RozDevon
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Re: First significant cold spell of the season due 18th Nov

Post by RozDevon » Sun Nov 17, 2013 3:13 pm

Could you have a look at South Devon for me please?
Your weather discussions are far more interesting than the regular forecasts.
Many thanks.


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stephenprudence
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Re: First significant cold spell of the season due 18th Nov

Post by stephenprudence » Sun Nov 17, 2013 3:49 pm

Is it coastal south Devon or inland? If it's coastal you may have a frost on Wednesday for a short time before midnight on Wednesday, but otherwise, it should be ok.. further inland you might have a sub zero frost but it should lift as the night goes on. Thereafter, for the south coast, not much in the way of frost, maybe some light frosts further inland.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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Re: First significant cold spell of the season due 18th Nov

Post by Nigel » Sun Nov 17, 2013 4:01 pm

GFS is very reliable when you have consistency in the models , it is then quite reliable even 10 days out. When the models are like they are now, changing completely every 6 hours there is no reliability , but then which model CAN be considered reliable ?
All of them are all over the shop and throwing up different scenarios every few hours, so the fact is the weather is in a transitional confused phase and until it re-establishes a pattern nobody can make an accurate forecast more than a few days out. At least we dont have the dreaded Greenland block establishing as yet, that would be my biggest fear. The large areas of high pressure hovering around are warm highs , so that wont allow severe weather in the short term, but the danger is if they stay long enough the energy will drain out of them and by mid december if we still are in this phase it would be quite serious, I think thats what Stephen is worrying about happening if I understand correctly.
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Re: First significant cold spell of the season due 18th Nov

Post by kata » Sun Nov 17, 2013 4:15 pm

Generally a bleak winters day with very fine to damp weather, some fog early morning,
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