The yo-yo thread, for whence and whom it may concern.

Nigel
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Re: First significant cold spell of the season due 18th Nov

Post by Nigel » Sat Nov 30, 2013 4:32 pm

Yeah the 06Z is the least reliable of all, but i kind of feel a change is coming , when it starts jumping around like this 10 days off it usually means the weather is becoming less certain, so the pattern may be breaking down.
But then you would expect that to happen in mid december , that was the pattern throughout the mild years.
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Re: First significant cold spell of the season due 18th Nov

Post by harryc » Sun Dec 01, 2013 9:30 am

With the GFS eventually moving to the ECM and UKMO outlook, Pretty much nailed on for 3-4 day cold blast at the start of the weekend.
Stephen with those potential -10 uppers over most of the country what sort ground temps are we possibly looking at?

H


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stephenprudence
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Re: First significant cold spell of the season due 18th Nov

Post by stephenprudence » Sun Dec 01, 2013 1:40 pm

With clear skies and light winds -3 to -4C wisespread, if you snow you can double that. Not sure how that one will turn out though
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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Re: First significant cold spell of the season due 18th Nov

Post by Nigel » Sun Dec 01, 2013 5:23 pm

Looks another cold plunge though rather than any sign of prolonged cold ?
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stephenprudence
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Re: First significant cold spell of the season due 18th Nov

Post by stephenprudence » Sun Dec 01, 2013 5:34 pm

The models are toying with the idea of the southerly following being of the inversion cold variety, although it's not a pattern I can say I'm very familiar with so not sure if the models are mis-handling it. The first plunge of cold is looking very likely though, quite powerful as well, there could be all sorts thrown in initially, rain, hail, snow, thunder, you name it, I'm thinking some harsh night frosts too, given how cold the upper air will be. It shouldn't be too prolonged though?
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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stephenprudence
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Re: First significant cold spell of the season due 18th Nov

Post by stephenprudence » Mon Dec 02, 2013 6:06 pm

The outlook is ok. The cold snap will bring two to three nights of frost, before it milds up again. icon_thumleft
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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Yorkshire Kris
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Re: First significant cold spell of the season due 18th Nov

Post by Yorkshire Kris » Mon Dec 02, 2013 6:15 pm

The title of this thread needs changing or to start a new thread (nothing to do with 18th november now)


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cordyman
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Re: The cold spell thread, for whence and whom it may concer

Post by cordyman » Tue Dec 03, 2013 1:07 pm

Great title change!!!!


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Re: The cold spell thread, for whence and whom it may concer

Post by harryc » Tue Dec 03, 2013 9:29 pm

After this brief cold snap, it's looking exceptionally mild for the time of the year :D

H


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Re: The cold spell thread, for whence and whom it may concer

Post by Nigel » Tue Dec 03, 2013 9:46 pm

Yep, this is soooo 90,s, stuck in this pattern with friendly high dominating for weeks on end.....
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cordyman
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Re: The cold spell thread, for whence and whom it may concer

Post by cordyman » Tue Dec 03, 2013 9:47 pm

And so so so dry too. Trails are drying up a right treat!!! Lovely


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Re: The cold spell thread, for whence and whom it may concer

Post by GREVILLE » Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:01 pm

Mild and dry.......I love it! (Got to change the title of the thread again :lol: )


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Re: The yo-yo thread, for whence and whom it may concern.

Post by Tom2006 » Tue Dec 03, 2013 11:41 pm

Watch out for the extremely strong gales first though. I need to weigh the poly house down.
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Exotic Life
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Re: The yo-yo thread, for whence and whom it may concern.

Post by Exotic Life » Wed Dec 04, 2013 9:15 am

Not a sign from cold here, and still frostfree as well. It looks like that we first need to deal with a another quite strong storm. Stormy and mild weather does remind me as well to the winters before the colder four came.

At the moment it looks like the Island and also the westcoast could have problems with high wind speeds up to 130 km per hour. The biggest concern at the moment is that the storm would be combinated with high tide, wich brought lots of trouble in the past. Going to be an interesting day tommorow.


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