The yo-yo thread, for whence and whom it may concern.

Nigel

Re: First significant cold spell of the season due 18th Nov

Post by Nigel »

Yeah the 06Z is the least reliable of all, but i kind of feel a change is coming , when it starts jumping around like this 10 days off it usually means the weather is becoming less certain, so the pattern may be breaking down.
But then you would expect that to happen in mid december , that was the pattern throughout the mild years.
harryc
Posts: 371
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 3:40 pm
Location: west midlands

Re: First significant cold spell of the season due 18th Nov

Post by harryc »

With the GFS eventually moving to the ECM and UKMO outlook, Pretty much nailed on for 3-4 day cold blast at the start of the weekend.
Stephen with those potential -10 uppers over most of the country what sort ground temps are we possibly looking at?

H
stephenprudence

Re: First significant cold spell of the season due 18th Nov

Post by stephenprudence »

With clear skies and light winds -3 to -4C wisespread, if you snow you can double that. Not sure how that one will turn out though
Nigel

Re: First significant cold spell of the season due 18th Nov

Post by Nigel »

Looks another cold plunge though rather than any sign of prolonged cold ?
stephenprudence

Re: First significant cold spell of the season due 18th Nov

Post by stephenprudence »

The models are toying with the idea of the southerly following being of the inversion cold variety, although it's not a pattern I can say I'm very familiar with so not sure if the models are mis-handling it. The first plunge of cold is looking very likely though, quite powerful as well, there could be all sorts thrown in initially, rain, hail, snow, thunder, you name it, I'm thinking some harsh night frosts too, given how cold the upper air will be. It shouldn't be too prolonged though?
stephenprudence

Re: First significant cold spell of the season due 18th Nov

Post by stephenprudence »

The outlook is ok. The cold snap will bring two to three nights of frost, before it milds up again. icon_thumleft
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Yorkshire Kris
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Re: First significant cold spell of the season due 18th Nov

Post by Yorkshire Kris »

The title of this thread needs changing or to start a new thread (nothing to do with 18th november now)
cordyman

Re: The cold spell thread, for whence and whom it may concer

Post by cordyman »

Great title change!!!!
harryc
Posts: 371
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 3:40 pm
Location: west midlands

Re: The cold spell thread, for whence and whom it may concer

Post by harryc »

After this brief cold snap, it's looking exceptionally mild for the time of the year :D

H
Nigel

Re: The cold spell thread, for whence and whom it may concer

Post by Nigel »

Yep, this is soooo 90,s, stuck in this pattern with friendly high dominating for weeks on end.....
cordyman

Re: The cold spell thread, for whence and whom it may concer

Post by cordyman »

And so so so dry too. Trails are drying up a right treat!!! Lovely
GREVILLE

Re: The cold spell thread, for whence and whom it may concer

Post by GREVILLE »

Mild and dry.......I love it! (Got to change the title of the thread again :lol: )
Tom2006
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Location: East Yorkshire UK

Re: The yo-yo thread, for whence and whom it may concern.

Post by Tom2006 »

Watch out for the extremely strong gales first though. I need to weigh the poly house down.
Most wanted list - Any Young Trachycarpus and/or fern.
Exotic Life

Re: The yo-yo thread, for whence and whom it may concern.

Post by Exotic Life »

Not a sign from cold here, and still frostfree as well. It looks like that we first need to deal with a another quite strong storm. Stormy and mild weather does remind me as well to the winters before the colder four came.

At the moment it looks like the Island and also the westcoast could have problems with high wind speeds up to 130 km per hour. The biggest concern at the moment is that the storm would be combinated with high tide, wich brought lots of trouble in the past. Going to be an interesting day tommorow.
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