The yo-yo thread, for whence and whom it may concern.

[otorongo]

The metoffice forecast has us for a -1C on Tuesday night, other than that it's above freezing. But that's for 'City of London' and I don't know if that literally means EC* postcodes, which are considerably milder than my NW*. I've seen ground frost on the grass in my local park and 8C on a LED display outside the Liverpool Street tube station 30 minutes later...

I've moved most things somewhere safer, to be fleeced on Tuesday night. The remaining bits are basically 2 brugs and one solandra in the ground, but if we only get a -1 then fleecing should see them through that odd bad night

[stephenprudence]

GFS is very reliable when you have consistency in the models , it is then quite reliable even 10 days out. When the models are like they are now, changing completely every 6 hours there is no reliability , but then which model CAN be considered reliable ?
All of them are all over the shop and throwing up different scenarios every few hours, so the fact is the weather is in a transitional confused phase and until it re-establishes a pattern nobody can make an accurate forecast more than a few days out. At least we dont have the dreaded Greenland block establishing as yet, that would be my biggest fear. The large areas of high pressure hovering around are warm highs , so that wont allow severe weather in the short term, but the danger is if they stay long enough the energy will drain out of them and by mid december if we still are in this phase it would be quite serious, I think thats what Stephen is worrying about happening if I understand correctly.

Yep, that is in essence my worry, however.. I am enthused by the consistency of the GFS in the last few days.. not to say it can't change, but whilst there would be frosts, the daytime temperatures would rise well above 0C (perhaps even into double figures in sheltered places).. the best thing is that things should dry out a little, which is important.

Met-Office seem to suggest maybe things returning to normal by mid-December.. and with the polar vortex holding heavy, and not succumbing to northern blocking, I think we will get a central Spain type winter pattern for the next few weeks. --> cold and dry.

[madgav]

Actually that doesn't sound too bad and perhaps not too dissimilar to the type of weather we had at the beginning of the month.
While finishing my winter protection on Saturday I noticed how relatively dry and firm the ground was. Rained most of yesterday though

[Tom2006]

Complete stand off inthe models today. Which way will it go?.......lots of cold pooling to the north of us, lets hope the Atlantic saves us.

[stephenprudence]

The Met-office longer outlook suggest a mix between the practically frost free GFS scenario, and the frequent frost of the UKMO/ECM models, I'd have to settle with a lengthy cold period with light frosts by night in most parts (except the east).

[cordyman]

The Met-office longer outlook suggest a mix between the practically frost free GFS scenario, and the frequent frost of the UKMO/ECM models, I'd have to settle with a lengthy cold period with light frosts by night in most parts (except the east).

Both dry though which is perfect !

[stephenprudence]

Yes of course as long as the daytime temperature gets above 5C every day there really won't be a problem as long as frost doesn't get below -3C for extended period of nights and the ground stays relatively moist

[stephenprudence]

Just read one of the weather forums for the first time in months.. I was hoping for some reasoned discussion but its full of people who don't know what they are talking about, demonstrating their cold driven crackpot theories - it's got much worse - if that's possible!

[Nigel]

There is forecasts of double digit days, frost free nights and sun by end of month , azores high seems to want to come our way. It would be nice if it did, the weather forecasts are getting better daily, I only have one sub zero night in the forecast now. Lots of ground frosts with cool dry days in the coming week.

[GoggleboxUK]

There is forecasts of double digit days, frost free nights and sun by end of month , azores high seems to want to come our way. It would be nice if it did, the weather forecasts are getting better daily, I only have one sub zero night in the forecast now. Lots of ground frosts with cool dry days in the coming week.

Same here but not even a -1. Decent daytime temps that will shrug off the ground frosts fairly quickly. Things are looking completely normal.

[Dave Brown]

Just read one of the weather forums for the first time in months.. I was hoping for some reasoned discussion but its full of people who don't know what they are talking about, demonstrating their cold driven crackpot theories - it's got much worse - if that's possible!

Norwegien Trolls

[stephenprudence]

Just read one of the weather forums for the first time in months.. I was hoping for some reasoned discussion but its full of people who don't know what they are talking about, demonstrating their cold driven crackpot theories - it's got much worse - if that's possible!

Norwegien Trolls

Probably close to the mark there

The issue is, as everyone is looking for cold, they're missing out on obvious signals, and don't realise the very theory they use to bring a severe winter is also compatible with the evolution to a mild winter. Even the so called 'experts' are guilty of this. If it wasn't run over by rampant cold ramping idiots, I'd happily post on there. (Although to be fair it's only the model output thread that contains this, not all the forum)

I admit I often forewarn of cold spells, but that's not because I enjoy it, and 100% not because I'm ramping it... weather forums model output discussion would be a highly useful tool, were it not for ramping like that.

[Yorkshire Kris]

TBH it's not going to be that cold this week is it? A couple of decent frosts that's all.

[cordyman]

no doesnt look cold at all, considering its not far off December

[stephenprudence]

Not cold as in genuine cold spell no, but cold enough to classify it as a typical wintry spell.

We've seen much worse, of course.