The yo-yo thread, for whence and whom it may concern.

stephenprudence

Re: First significant cold spell of the season due 18th Nov

Post by stephenprudence » Tue Nov 19, 2013 4:24 pm

If it wasn't for the cloud coming in later you could easily see how here tonight it could go as low as -4 or -5C. Temperature is plummeting, and we'll have an air frost in about 30 minutes here. Got the heater all fired up in the greenhouse, as it could fall to -2C before it warms up tonight. brrrr!

GoggleboxUK

Re: First significant cold spell of the season due 18th Nov

Post by GoggleboxUK » Tue Nov 19, 2013 5:53 pm

Well, it's not been T shirt weather today.

Then again, still not coat and gloves weather either.

;)

harryc
Posts: 371
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 3:40 pm
Location: west midlands

Re: First significant cold spell of the season due 18th Nov

Post by harryc » Tue Nov 19, 2013 6:48 pm

You may get a chance to wear your t shirt after the weekend Goggs looks like the Atlantic is back in business so just a short cold snap. :D :D :D

H

stephenprudence

Re: First significant cold spell of the season due 18th Nov

Post by stephenprudence » Tue Nov 19, 2013 6:51 pm

Outside it's 1.1C in the side border it's 5.4C. Excellent.

Yes also a good chance of the Atlantic making a comeback, at least for a bit.

RozDevon

Re: First significant cold spell of the season due 18th Nov

Post by RozDevon » Tue Nov 19, 2013 7:50 pm

Feeling very chilly indeed here. 2.5c at present, moon out, no wind.

kata

Re: First significant cold spell of the season due 18th Nov

Post by kata » Tue Nov 19, 2013 7:52 pm

Frost on the cars after dinner around 7,

OOOOH Its coming...so is Christmas.

:lol: :lol: :lol:

otorongo
Posts: 1434
Joined: Tue Jan 10, 2012 5:12 pm
Location: sub-subtropical London

Re: First significant cold spell of the season due 18th Nov

Post by otorongo » Tue Nov 19, 2013 8:00 pm

2.7C on Wunderground for Kensington now at 8pm. According to the BBC clouds are meant to move in around 4-5am, and a low of 0C which I don't trust. I feel it will get down to around -1C, but we'll see. Things are fleeced and more or less safe.

Some of the laundry pegs on the table at the back of the garden were already frozen when I was picking them to fix the fleece in place.

kata

Re: First significant cold spell of the season due 18th Nov

Post by kata » Tue Nov 19, 2013 8:27 pm

Fern was re-wrapped two days ago, Rob said the sheet will rot the log. Now I am happy with it...bring it on... :lol: :lol:

Ensete is under cover draining and leafless.

Keep warm everyone, plants are replaceable.

:mrgreen: icon_cheers

Springy

Re: First significant cold spell of the season coming right

Post by Springy » Wed Nov 20, 2013 7:13 am

stephenprudence wrote:To me around Worcester, I'd expect around -5C at the height of the spell, although Worcester would usually get -5C in an average winter, and maybe colder, this is earlier than you would expect to see such a temperature.

Abingdon will probably get a similar temperature to Worcester, around -5C or so. I'd expect places like Wallingford to get around -7C or so.
Good prediction Stephen!! icon_thumleft
I've just been out to see how low it got last night and the thermometer read -5C and that was in the most sheltered part of the garden near the house!
BBC weather said that Benson recorded a -6.5C.

stephenprudence

Re: First significant cold spell of the season due 18th Nov

Post by stephenprudence » Wed Nov 20, 2013 6:13 pm

My next prediction won't be taken so well, I expect two things to happen

1) The Atlantic won't break this down

2) the Greenland High will eventually form bringing trouble to our shores.

I'm looking at the situation and thinking, I'm not really happy with it. You look at the situation and you wonder where proper mobility will come from. The key issue I think is the attempt to bring mobile weather, or even mobile pattern itself, will displace the polar vortex which is stopping the Greenland High from forming. Once this PV is displaced, then I think we could have a few problems.

Add to that the propensity for continuous and unremitting frosts from later this week until at least early December, you have a recipe for 1. A very poor localised winter for western gardens, and 2. A more pressing issue further down the line, especially for western gardens but more along the whole country.

There is reason for this, not just a pretty headline.. I'd love the Atlantic to come in, but each day, I'm becoming more sceptical of it.

Nigel

Re: First significant cold spell of the season due 18th Nov

Post by Nigel » Wed Nov 20, 2013 9:07 pm

Stephen , this cold spell is nowhere near what you forecast,have you been looking at those silly forums again ?
Where are the indicators of this cold ?

What is the atlantic supposed to be breaking down ? We are on the warm side of the jetstream, with the azores high ridging our way ,this is not bad winter weather. The azores high is a warm high, not a cold one, it protects us. In winter of course its still cold but never severe, and offers many pleasant dayimes.

stephenprudence

Re: First significant cold spell of the season due 18th Nov

Post by stephenprudence » Wed Nov 20, 2013 9:34 pm

Unfortunately Nigel your preaching of "this is a warm high" matter not a jot when it's played out at ground level.

Anyhow if we did not ssuggest potential for colder weather down the line, we'd be creating a false sense of security.

Anyway it's potential, not fact, and it could occur but we can't make over it because of a generalisation.

If you have not experienced ice days in these type of setups, all is forgiven, but if you have experienced inversions and ice days I'm surprised because they often occur in these conditions.

Besides I always maintained it would be ground level cold and that cold has not really even started in most sheltered western districts. A winter high might be warm one, but as I'm not living 8000 metres above sea level, I don't think somehow that will really make a difference...

I don't think you realise how severe frosts can be, even under a atmospherically warm high, it doesn't quite work like you think.

FWIW I dont look at model output discussions now, I make my own deductions from the models and jetstream forecasts.

However there are 3 options for you Nigel:

1) Ignore my posts, you are not in any way having to read them
2) Ignore me? I think there's a button where you can ignore a specific users posts?
3) If it's got to the point where you think it's very bad and becoming a massive problem to the integrity of the forum and it's users, and people will not join the forum because of it, perhaps Dave will intervene and I may be banned, if you feel that's necessary. Understandable if that's the way it's going.

Fairs Fair

Nigel

Re: First significant cold spell of the season due 18th Nov

Post by Nigel » Wed Nov 20, 2013 10:19 pm

You are right, if people want to be scared to death weekly thats fine, carry on. Its the 20th November, winter has not started yet officially ,we have not had any severe weather, or any sign of any, and I have already had enough of the cold ramping. Hadley CET as of today is still +0.1C against the anomoly so its been an exactly average november so far. Its going to be a long winter and I cant put up with any more doom, I need to stay positive to deal with our winters and I cant do it on here.
Last edited by Nigel on Wed Nov 20, 2013 10:45 pm, edited 2 times in total.

harryc
Posts: 371
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 3:40 pm
Location: west midlands

Re: First significant cold spell of the season due 18th Nov

Post by harryc » Wed Nov 20, 2013 10:37 pm

Come on you two you both have a wealth of knowledge in terms of weather patterns and you have your differing views, no need for either of you not to post your views on what you see ahead.

H

RozDevon

Re: First significant cold spell of the season due 18th Nov

Post by RozDevon » Wed Nov 20, 2013 11:36 pm

I for one love reading both Stephen and Nigel's very informed posts and hope you both continue with your discussions..
I am learning a lot from you both about our weather and find it more detailed and thought provoking than any other forecasts.
Please settle your differences and help this amateur gardener with your superior knowledge.

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