keep an eye on eastern USA

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stephenprudence
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Location: Heswall, Wirral

Re: keep an eye on eastern USA

Post by stephenprudence » Wed Jan 22, 2014 11:03 pm

The GFS has moved away from the potential harsh cold now, however we will be trapped in cold air, and the genuine chance of the first snows of Winter, especially in the west, around the weekend. Usually when models show any cold, it usually pops up later on other models, so we'll have to say cold is a real possibility.. however as yet, apart from on the UKMO model, there's no hard cold. Lets hope it stays like this icon_cheers
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


Tom2006
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Re: keep an eye on eastern USA

Post by Tom2006 » Thu Jan 23, 2014 3:11 am

Yes its looking good. The prats on the weather forums are arguing between themselves which is a sure sign no worrying cold is coming.
Most wanted list - Any Young Trachycarpus and/or fern.


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stephenprudence
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Re: keep an eye on eastern USA

Post by stephenprudence » Thu Jan 23, 2014 9:26 am

Not sure why they are arguing, as some models are still showing omega block potential which would be curtains for us... But... There is no agreement whatsoever and lack of agreement at the moment can only favour the none very cold scenario.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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stephenprudence
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Location: Heswall, Wirral

Re: keep an eye on eastern USA

Post by stephenprudence » Thu Jan 23, 2014 10:55 am

I think I have to concede, and be quite certain of late January and February (early to mid?) being a rather frosty, and snowy affair as it stands (on all model outputs), so it's the last week of unseasonal flowering and out of season growth, before it all gets set back significantly (compared to current).

Interestingly, the GFS model has reverted to its 'Its the season for silly temperatures', trying to suggest -6C widespread in the west.. thankfully, I can be almost certain this is an error, and the GFS is massively prone to surface and 850hPa temperature errors when a continental airmass is forecast.

How long will continental influence last? Well.. the Scandinavian High will get very strong, and will exert either a direct or indirect influence on our weather, meaning cold and frosty is the outlook, as it stands. When considering timings, the influence starts arpund the weekend, and is forecast to last for 7-10days? uncertainty at the moment.. no harsh frosts as yet though.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


otorongo
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Location: sub-subtropical London

Re: keep an eye on eastern USA

Post by otorongo » Thu Jan 23, 2014 11:09 am

I see ground frosts here next week, hopefully no air frosts. My brugs have been doing great outside in the ground so far and are leafing out. My blueberries are leafing out too :ahhh!:


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eddie
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Location: The Hague NL Zone 7a

Re: keep an eye on eastern USA

Post by eddie » Thu Jan 23, 2014 11:14 am

Tom2006 wrote:The prats on the weather forums are arguing between themselves which is a sure sign no worrying cold is coming.
:lol:
That's the same way I look at the weather forecasts. When those guys are arguing, we'll probably have normal grey wet weather.
Washingtonia Trachycarpus Cordyline? Bamboos Olive tree? Bananas


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stephenprudence
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Re: keep an eye on eastern USA

Post by stephenprudence » Thu Jan 23, 2014 11:32 am

eddie wrote:
Tom2006 wrote:The prats on the weather forums are arguing between themselves which is a sure sign no worrying cold is coming.
:lol:
That's the same way I look at the weather forecasts. When those guys are arguing, we'll probably have normal grey wet weather.
Thats funny considering you're about 100km away from a frigid air mass this week :mrgreen:

just joking, well I'm not, but I hope the main 'transport cold' doesn't reach you there..though it looks like only the northern/eastern parts of NL will see some very cold weather for a short time.

Well if they're arguing on weather forums, it suggests to me they don't know much about weather, but if I was a c*ld Weather f*n at the moment, I'd be delighted with the output. But I'm not, and I'm not. :wink:
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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