First Air Frost of 2014 for some? (14/02 - 18/02)?

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stephenprudence
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First Air Frost of 2014 for some? (14/02 - 18/02)?

Post by stephenprudence » Thu Jan 23, 2014 5:23 pm

It looks like we will indeed see our first cold spell of the season (amazing we can say that on January 23rd).. personally I was expectant that the whole of January would go through frost free, but now that looks very unlikely, however, 2-3 air frosts in January will not be a bad thing at all. Anyway rambling aside, below are the details, and potential scenarios that could occur.

Worth noting all the scenarios available, result in cold to some extent, generally starting next week (or late weekend).

At this current time it's not likely to be killer cold.. but (and don't be too alarmed), a quick shift to the west, could change this.. two points about this though.. 1. The cold air is a long way to the east as this stands, but 2. model outputs are bringing the cold to the west with every run.

Now those who look at charts and see no cold, well, it's about what's setting up rather than whether the cold is over us already. Interestingly (and perhaps a little worryingly) is the extent for cold to fill in, until were in one big cold party with the entire northern hemisphere. As they say, the loners eventually join the party sooner or later.

Even the best case scenario will result in frosts and localised ice days where fog lingers... worst case scenario... a fully blown easterly with potential heavy snow and very low temperatures... that Siberian-Scandinavian High looks very very ominous and is getting bigger with each run.. if it connects with the Mid-Atl High then it's curtains for us (in terms of no damage).

So without wanting to come across like the party pooper or one of those weather forum doomsayers, we really do have to keep an eye on things, but there is a wide range of scenarios, from slightly iffy, so monumentally disastrous!

I'd say all of the options have an equal chance of happening at the moment..

On most models, this little message is only valid until early February where at the moment, signals are for Atlantic return however.. this could still change, but at least, currently we can say it's not a month long issue!
Last edited by stephenprudence on Fri Feb 07, 2014 11:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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cheshirepalms
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Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by cheshirepalms » Thu Jan 23, 2014 7:13 pm

It does look like it will go colder definitely, lets hope that it won't be too cold. The fact that its coming from the west it going to moderate this somewhat from what it could have been if we'd had a colder winter so far, as sea temperatures are as good as we can expect for January. We can definitely blame the Americans if this materializes lol. My worry is that if the lows next week move to the south east, it will draw in an north easterly into moist air and cause some problems with snow, which in turn will produce harsher frosts afterwards. The west will definitely get this first as the source air is bloody cold at the moment, lets hope the Atlantic is warmer than we think or this tracks slightly further north. Thanks for the heads up though! icon_thumleft


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Yorkshire Kris
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Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by Yorkshire Kris » Thu Jan 23, 2014 7:26 pm

Thanks for the heads up. Could you change the title of this thread when you are more certain of what to expect? Something like take acton now! KILLER COLD THIS WEEK! Or phew no bad whether for now.


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stephenprudence
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Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by stephenprudence » Thu Jan 23, 2014 7:28 pm

Sure, it's difficult at the moment, but I'll let you know if something changes for the better/worst.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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Yorkshire Kris
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Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by Yorkshire Kris » Thu Jan 23, 2014 7:40 pm

stephenprudence wrote:Sure, it's difficult at the moment, but I'll let you know if something changes for the better/worst.
Many thanks.


Tom2006
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Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by Tom2006 » Thu Jan 23, 2014 8:08 pm

Good to give us a warning thanks. Ive just had a look and its a cold westerly feed so I'm not too worried as all the cold is kept at bay in Europe. Snow likely on the hills possible wet slush quickly melting to lower levels but no worse. icon_thumleft
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stephenprudence
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Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by stephenprudence » Thu Jan 23, 2014 8:48 pm

Well the low bringing the northeasterly is causing a little concern, because its logevity keeps increasing.. a day ago it was maybe here for 1 day, it's been increasing to 2 days, now 3 days, so that low is a kind of cog for bringing in cold continental air. We'll see how it goes.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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sanatic1234
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Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by sanatic1234 » Thu Jan 23, 2014 8:50 pm

Heads up though folks springs only round corner. :wink:
Best regards Aaron :)

Summer 2013 was a good one :-).

http://s1006.photobucket.com/home/sanat ... entuploads


otorongo
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Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by otorongo » Thu Jan 23, 2014 10:04 pm

Image

Looking cold next week but I don't think it will get colder here than what we've already had this 'cool season 2013/2014', i.e. the -0.8C in November.


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stephenprudence
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Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by stephenprudence » Thu Jan 23, 2014 10:20 pm

I'm not concerned about it really, it's just a forethought. I can't see suburban London being affected whatsoever though icon_thumleft

It's a bit different here, on a personal IMBY point of view.. as with here, and along with other colder parts of the country, we may see a few hard frosts.. but this is Winter afterall.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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MonkeyDavid
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Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by MonkeyDavid » Thu Jan 23, 2014 10:41 pm

Can I just say Stephen that if in a few days time someone shoots you down for exaggerating the cold pay no attention, I like many would much rather have been informed of the potential cold & been prepaired rather than not know anything untill the last minute & not been able to do anything


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stephenprudence
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Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by stephenprudence » Thu Jan 23, 2014 10:44 pm

I'm surprised I havent been shot down yet David :lol:

Though Id hope not to exaggerate anything, just potential is where it's at.. if it becomes more clear we can have more clear idea, unfortunately it's about as clear as (cold) mud, right now.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


Kristen
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Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by Kristen » Thu Jan 23, 2014 10:45 pm

Any prediction for Snow in East Anglia pls?
K's Garden blog last update 30th December 2012, HTUK Blog


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stephenprudence
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Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by stephenprudence » Thu Jan 23, 2014 11:16 pm

low chance, unlikely in the next week icon_thumleft
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


Kristen
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Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by Kristen » Fri Jan 24, 2014 8:42 am

Thanks Stephen.
K's Garden blog last update 30th December 2012, HTUK Blog


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