First Air Frost of 2014 for some? (14/02 - 18/02)?

[cordyman]

We're very overdue a cold snap.

Have a feeling it won't materialise though.

Good to do a fresh post though, whenever a definite risk rears its head.

[stephenprudence]

No chance of it not materialising but at this point it won't be severe. Some ensemble maps are suggesting an anomaly in surface temperature of-4C to -6C however which sounds pretty severe yet I'm not really seeing this.

A mean anomaly of -4C would see maximum temperatures around 4C and minimum temperatures -2C, seems a little harsh.

[stephenprudence]

PS two models are now showing slight potential for the evolution of markedly cold conditions which fit in with those anomalies.. Which was not there yesterday.. Could change back but escaping a cold spell of moderate intensity looks somewhat unlikely now

[Exotic Life]

Cold close by in Germany, and slowly entrance Holland from the northeast. Big differences at the moment and tomorrow would be even bigger.The Northeast can say that have a little winter feeling this weekend. Southwest should think of a bbq compare them.

[Tom2006]

Still not seeing anything other than marginal slushy sleet for most. Higher up could get quite a covering though. Thankfully no serious cold but worryingly a lot of rain so flooding likely again for many.

[fern Rob]

Still not seeing anything other than marginal slushy sleet for most. Higher up could get quite a covering though. Thankfully no serious cold but worryingly a lot of rain so flooding likely again for many.

Have you already had sleet? touch wood non so far here. Some of my cyatheas are already pushing out new croziers.

[stephenprudence]

Few days to earmark for Potential.. this coming Thursday and Friday for the first 'severe' frost in the west, and first ice day in the west. Quite a long way to go yet, but potential for -5C in sheltered western areas at this date.

Considering what we've had this season so far (nothing at all), this is quite a potential notably event (relatively speaking)

Yes Tom for you guys in the east, you shouldn't see such frosts, so you're not wrong.. any hard frosts should be contained in sheltered western areas/West coastal areas (as we would normally expect in these relatively shortlived scenarios)

Models starting to pick up on a potentially large snow event down towards next weekend too (it's been on the models for a time actually), which given the parameters for the pattern, and upper air values can only get colder, means a snow event is actually quite likely. Currently it's only areas east of the welsh border that would see snow, but this an ever evolving situation so it'll become clearer nearer the time. If anyone wants anymore details on it, I'll be happy to provide them, but it's a long way out so plenty to change.

[sanatic1234]

and quite possibly north east stephen so i have been reading today but they said that it is very uncertain if other areas apart form the north east will be getting it at this time, they said it was a long way of to give a definite say so as to if other parts of the country will see snow. They said that the Scottish mountains are absolutely covered now.

[stephenprudence]

Certainly good for the ski industry up on the 'gorms.. yes I saw a few pictures, it's looking healthy with some nice pistes.

As for us, well Northeast will get hit I'm sure, away from coastal areas, it looks too marginal otherwise.. sea surface temperatures even in the usually frigid North Sea, are fairly anomalously high, so snow here is unlikely, at first. Obviously places like Durham would get a good hiding from the cold and snow.. as they always do.

Surprisingly, there is one place that may get away with this, and it's fairly unusual given the patterns of NE and NW air flows - that is Southern England (inlcuding SE England), who usually get hit hardest in those situations (in terms of frost).

[sanatic1234]

Oh that will be me then, I hope it does, I do get some pretty bad frosts at times but it still amazes me with me being so close to the sea, but I suppose it only takes that 2-300ft away from the sea to give the frost a chance to form?

[Kristen]

Why colder on the West than East (given that the cold is coming FROM the East)

Does the join between Atlantic air and Eastern Block give you clear skies on the West, and leave us cloud cover on the East? Or perhaps some other reason?

[eddie]

nice pics from the cold across the pond: http://www.thisiscolossal.com/2014/01/p ... ep-freeze/

[Tom2006]

Still not seeing anything other than marginal slushy sleet for most. Higher up could get quite a covering though. Thankfully no serious cold but worryingly a lot of rain so flooding likely again for many.

Have you already had sleet? touch wood non so far here. Some of my cyatheas are already pushing out new croziers.

No nothing Rob. Think our coldest has been -3c.

[stephenprudence]

Why colder on the West than East (given that the cold is coming FROM the East)

Does the join between Atlantic air and Eastern Block give you clear skies on the West, and leave us cloud cover on the East? Or perhaps some other reason?

Precisely, the easterly air flow plus onshore cloud, would ensure the east gets the milder temperatures (perhaps frost free on the coast), in the west however, light winds and clear skies, and along with any snow on the ground would lead to fairly harsh frosts. I'd rather have cold winds than hard frosts, but many people think different.

As it stands, there are extremes of output at the moment, with two models, the UKMO (met office) model and JMA (japanese model) suggesting some heavy snow and severe cold.. however for now, the ECM (European model), and the GFS (Global forecasting model), are not buying into severe cold or disruptive snow. One group of models will have to give in, but no telling which ones will. It is either going to be fairly cold, or very cold.. but either way it's going to be cold.

I'm not wholly concerned at the moment, because we simply don't know what will happen, and while the more severe option does provide more cause for concern, it's the worst option out of a few, so not worth worrying about at this stage.

[Conifers]

Obviously places like Durham would get a good hiding from the cold and snow.. as they always do.

Durham (50 m altitude) will probably be OK, but Consett (150 to 200 m altitude) may well get a pasting.