First Air Frost of 2014 for some? (14/02 - 18/02)?
Posted: Thu Jan 23, 2014 5:23 pm
It looks like we will indeed see our first cold spell of the season (amazing we can say that on January 23rd).. personally I was expectant that the whole of January would go through frost free, but now that looks very unlikely, however, 2-3 air frosts in January will not be a bad thing at all. Anyway rambling aside, below are the details, and potential scenarios that could occur.
Worth noting all the scenarios available, result in cold to some extent, generally starting next week (or late weekend).
At this current time it's not likely to be killer cold.. but (and don't be too alarmed), a quick shift to the west, could change this.. two points about this though.. 1. The cold air is a long way to the east as this stands, but 2. model outputs are bringing the cold to the west with every run.
Now those who look at charts and see no cold, well, it's about what's setting up rather than whether the cold is over us already. Interestingly (and perhaps a little worryingly) is the extent for cold to fill in, until were in one big cold party with the entire northern hemisphere. As they say, the loners eventually join the party sooner or later.
Even the best case scenario will result in frosts and localised ice days where fog lingers... worst case scenario... a fully blown easterly with potential heavy snow and very low temperatures... that Siberian-Scandinavian High looks very very ominous and is getting bigger with each run.. if it connects with the Mid-Atl High then it's curtains for us (in terms of no damage).
So without wanting to come across like the party pooper or one of those weather forum doomsayers, we really do have to keep an eye on things, but there is a wide range of scenarios, from slightly iffy, so monumentally disastrous!
I'd say all of the options have an equal chance of happening at the moment..
On most models, this little message is only valid until early February where at the moment, signals are for Atlantic return however.. this could still change, but at least, currently we can say it's not a month long issue!
Worth noting all the scenarios available, result in cold to some extent, generally starting next week (or late weekend).
At this current time it's not likely to be killer cold.. but (and don't be too alarmed), a quick shift to the west, could change this.. two points about this though.. 1. The cold air is a long way to the east as this stands, but 2. model outputs are bringing the cold to the west with every run.
Now those who look at charts and see no cold, well, it's about what's setting up rather than whether the cold is over us already. Interestingly (and perhaps a little worryingly) is the extent for cold to fill in, until were in one big cold party with the entire northern hemisphere. As they say, the loners eventually join the party sooner or later.
Even the best case scenario will result in frosts and localised ice days where fog lingers... worst case scenario... a fully blown easterly with potential heavy snow and very low temperatures... that Siberian-Scandinavian High looks very very ominous and is getting bigger with each run.. if it connects with the Mid-Atl High then it's curtains for us (in terms of no damage).
So without wanting to come across like the party pooper or one of those weather forum doomsayers, we really do have to keep an eye on things, but there is a wide range of scenarios, from slightly iffy, so monumentally disastrous!
I'd say all of the options have an equal chance of happening at the moment..
On most models, this little message is only valid until early February where at the moment, signals are for Atlantic return however.. this could still change, but at least, currently we can say it's not a month long issue!