First Air Frost of 2014 for some? (14/02 - 18/02)?

User avatar
Exotic Life
Posts: 1818
Joined: Fri Feb 16, 2007 3:03 pm
Location: Southwest of the Netherlands

Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by Exotic Life » Sat Jan 25, 2014 11:22 am

Going to change another 50 times but I was smiling even more after the GFS run this morning. If something like that will be for real then then we are safe till the beginning of Feb again.

In the meanwhile the northeast of Holland has there own winter...

Image


User avatar
stephenprudence
Posts: 9028
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2008 8:40 pm
Location: Heswall, Wirral

Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by stephenprudence » Sat Jan 25, 2014 11:28 am

GFS run is nice, but for the moment it's completely and utterly outnumbered by models that want to bring in cold easterly/northeasterly air down the road, so I think the moderate cold is what we can expect, perhaps trending to deep cold if the majority of models outlooks transpire, though obviously it's too early to say for sure.. the GFS could be right, and it would be quite a scalp for the GFS to be correct given it's the only model that resists very cold continental air.

Edit: sorry I saw you meant until the beginning of Feb.. yes it's ok til the beginning of Feb, though over this side of the north sea will have some severe frost in the west on Thursday!
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


GREVILLE
Posts: 2866
Joined: Sat Jan 22, 2011 10:39 am
Location: South London

Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by GREVILLE » Sat Jan 25, 2014 10:59 pm

We are definitely on course for the coldest weather of the winter so far in the London area. Sounds a bit drastic? Not really. A little below average until the end of the month and a climb to a little above during early February, staying like that for much of the month.


User avatar
stephenprudence
Posts: 9028
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2008 8:40 pm
Location: Heswall, Wirral

Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by stephenprudence » Sat Jan 25, 2014 11:42 pm

Below average all the way here up north, also a low chance of significant snow. I'd say if snow doesn't materialise, temperatures will be tolerable to plants, though onbviously now the chance of getting the summer bedding right through Winter, is gone. If snow does occur though then severe cold will result.. fortunately as it stands, that doesn't look likely.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


Nigel
Posts: 2468
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2007 8:16 am
Location: BACK IN BLIGHTY, BRISTOL
Contact:

Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by Nigel » Sun Jan 26, 2014 7:39 am

Some winter average weather and we are saying it will cold, shows what an exceptional winter its been :lol:
Hardypalms is now open http://www.hardy-palms.co.uk Discounts for HTUK members on request.


User avatar
stephenprudence
Posts: 9028
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2008 8:40 pm
Location: Heswall, Wirral

Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by stephenprudence » Sun Jan 26, 2014 9:39 am

Nigel, arguably if it doesn't snow, and there's a possibility it might not, then realistically, many parts (away from the west, because of Thursdays hard frost), could see well above there normal Winter temperature, which is, I believe around -6 to -7C in most parts.. So finishing above average in terms of extremes of temperatures (and perhaps mean temperatures?)

For western parts though Thursday will bring some hard frost so, annual minimum temperature criteria probably being met.. and who's to say the western coastal area won't record the lowest across large swathes of the country for Winter 2013-14.

For example I'm almost certain that on Thursday morning, I will have got the -4C I would usually expect in a normal year.

Long term outlook.. ok at the moment, but still the risk of the block getting it's act together.

Short term outlook.. cold, frosty and perhaps snowy for some.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


User avatar
Exotic Life
Posts: 1818
Joined: Fri Feb 16, 2007 3:03 pm
Location: Southwest of the Netherlands

Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by Exotic Life » Sun Jan 26, 2014 10:03 am

Mini winter continue in the northeast with frost and snow... Okay, this also on the extreme side but this is how it normally should be. Coldest in the northeast and warmest in the southwest...

Image

Image


Tom2006
Posts: 8091
Joined: Thu Sep 30, 2010 11:23 am
Location: East Yorkshire UK

Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by Tom2006 » Sun Jan 26, 2014 10:14 am

Apart from flooding (which is getting very serious) there os nothing that I can see to worry about. Even the snow is wet and reserved mainly for the higher ground.
Most wanted list - Any Young Trachycarpus and/or fern.


Conifers
Posts: 13147
Joined: Sat Jun 20, 2009 2:11 pm
Location: Northumbs

Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by Conifers » Sun Jan 26, 2014 8:44 pm

Exotic Life wrote:[ Image ]
A strikingly sharp boundary between the mild and cold!


otorongo
Posts: 1428
Joined: Tue Jan 10, 2012 5:12 pm
Location: sub-subtropical London

Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by otorongo » Sun Jan 26, 2014 9:47 pm

Groningen getting their butts whipped!

I see southerlies bringing back the mild and wet from 5 Feb onwards... And this cold spell coming is not going to be severe here in London. No air frost anyway, maybe a very light one in the worst case scenario.


User avatar
Blairs
Posts: 1014
Joined: Sat Dec 22, 2012 1:03 am
Location: Falkirk

Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by Blairs » Sun Jan 26, 2014 10:21 pm

stephenprudence wrote: For example I'm almost certain that on Thursday morning, I will have got the -4C I would usually expect in a normal year.
Is this still the case? Different [mainstream] weather forecasts has it -3 here on Thursday with it maybe staying cold for a few days. Am trying to plan if I need to wrap again and dust off the GH heater. It will put pay to the Nasturtium seeds that are optimistically germinating!


Tom2006
Posts: 8091
Joined: Thu Sep 30, 2010 11:23 am
Location: East Yorkshire UK

Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by Tom2006 » Sun Jan 26, 2014 11:17 pm

Blairs wrote:
stephenprudence wrote: For example I'm almost certain that on Thursday morning, I will have got the -4C I would usually expect in a normal year.
Is this still the case? Different [mainstream] weather forecasts has it -3 here on Thursday with it maybe staying cold for a few days. Am trying to plan if I need to wrap again and dust off the GH heater. It will put pay to the Nasturtium seeds that are optimistically germinating!
A cold easterly wind will set im weds for a few days. No ice days but overnight in prone spots could get lower than -4c....hard to say where exactly at this stage and thankfully looks set to be a short blast before normal service is resumed.
Most wanted list - Any Young Trachycarpus and/or fern.


User avatar
cordyman
Posts: 7129
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2009 10:24 pm
Location: Northwest UK

Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by cordyman » Mon Jan 27, 2014 7:34 am

Forcast a minus 1 here, so thus far looks like it won't hit here very hard by least


User avatar
stephenprudence
Posts: 9028
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2008 8:40 pm
Location: Heswall, Wirral

Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by stephenprudence » Mon Jan 27, 2014 7:35 am

Actually given the slack nature of the forecast, and that the Atlantic will be severely inhibited, I feel ice days are actually likely in places, with a very immobile situation, fog could be a problem, and then ice days may follow. Only in local areas though.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


User avatar
stephenprudence
Posts: 9028
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2008 8:40 pm
Location: Heswall, Wirral

Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by stephenprudence » Mon Jan 27, 2014 12:49 pm

Things starting to look much better now... The low point will be on the 31st where western areas will get severe frost with large parts seeing -5C potentially ... Once that's over it will improve.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


Post Reply