First Air Frost of 2014 for some? (14/02 - 18/02)?

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Blairs
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Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by Blairs » Mon Jan 27, 2014 1:01 pm

stephenprudence wrote:Things starting to look much better now... The low point will be on the 31st where western areas will get severe frost with large parts seeing -5C potentially ... Once that's over it will improve.
Yip, forecast has already changed to 0/-1 on 31st. As long as it is forecast upwards I am happy!


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The Codfather
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Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by The Codfather » Mon Jan 27, 2014 5:15 pm

for once I a am glas I live on the east coast !!! :lol:
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stephenprudence
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Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by stephenprudence » Mon Jan 27, 2014 6:04 pm

Now it looks like there will be two days with severe frosts in the west, overnight on the 30th, and overnight on the 31st, with light air frosts following on right through the week.

On Thursday it now looks like there will be a widespread ice day in the west.

Slowly but surely it's changing for the worst in the short term.. these conditions could be quite damaging for plants, especially with all the rain of recently, and potential 36 hours straight below 0C in many western parts of England and east Wales.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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cordyman
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Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by cordyman » Mon Jan 27, 2014 6:43 pm

Think i'm going to escape it here in the northwest icon_study

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stephenprudence
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Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by stephenprudence » Mon Jan 27, 2014 6:54 pm

If you escape it Cordy then you can be sure you have much milder climate than I have. Hopefully you will escape it, as hopefully everyone will, but my own local experience says we're in for a hard frost (at least in this local area) so therefore I'm as sure as I can be that my location will particularly hard hit. That said I can't complain because in these situations, it's normal for my location to record some of the lowest temperatures in the whole country. icon_thumright
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


GREVILLE
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Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by GREVILLE » Mon Jan 27, 2014 10:25 pm

Marginally colder today in London but the promise of the odd wintry bit early on didn't materialise, instead there was some lovely warm spring sunshine (as long as you were out of the breeze).


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cordyman
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Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by cordyman » Wed Jan 29, 2014 7:34 am

Looks like the cold spell has petered off before its even started icon_cheers
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Nigel
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Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by Nigel » Wed Jan 29, 2014 7:44 am

stephenprudence wrote:Now it looks like there will be two days with severe frosts in the west, overnight on the 30th, and overnight on the 31st, with light air frosts following on right through the week.
.
Stephen I think you need to redefine your definition of severe frost. Most people think it will get down to -8 to -10C when you write that.
-1c and -2c are not severe frosts.
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Arlon Tishmarsh
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Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by Arlon Tishmarsh » Wed Jan 29, 2014 8:11 am

I'm always grateful for any warnings of impending cold, better to be aware than not. Thankfully, forecasts for my area haven't shown any degree for concern and seem to carry forward a continuance of mild weather................
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Blairs
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Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by Blairs » Wed Jan 29, 2014 9:29 am

Arlon Tishmarsh wrote:I'm always grateful for any warnings of impending cold, better to be aware than not. Thankfully, forecasts for my area haven't shown any degree for concern and seem to carry forward a continuance of mild weather................
BBC Weather has a similar forecast for me (5-3C), yet Accuweather has it 3 to -2C. A difference of 5C and the difference of frost or not! It does sound like western parts will get snow but that will turn to rain quickly.


harryc
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Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by harryc » Wed Jan 29, 2014 9:35 am

As Nigel has said there is nothing severe in the forecasts regarding frost. Rain may be more if a problem!


Tom2006
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Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by Tom2006 » Wed Jan 29, 2014 10:46 am

Yep its looking wet and sometimes windy right into February. Flooding remains the concern. Another couple of weeks and we should be virtually out of the woods in terns of a damaging spell of cold weather.
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stephenprudence
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Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by stephenprudence » Wed Jan 29, 2014 10:48 am

One word we should avoid using to describe the weather this week will be mild, because it's going to feel bitterly cold all week with strong returning polar maritime winds off the continent (southeast winds) in the most part. For many, night temperature will be just above/at/just below 0C whilst day time temperatures for most somewhere between 3C and 6C, which will feel more like freezing in that nagging breeze.

So as it stands, a wintry theme lies ahead with general mix of rain/sleet/snow not just for higher ground, but lower ground at time also. Temperatures generall below average for the forseeable future.. quite a change from the past few months.

Actually personally this weather with it's borderline wintriness and wet, and freezing cold winds, may be the worst weather you can possibly be out in.

I cant foresee the cold killing any plants, but a combination of cold and wet, we may unfortunately start to see rot becoming an issue, as the ground is already absolutely sodden in many parts.. the cold will only pronounce the problem.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


Nigel
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Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by Nigel » Wed Jan 29, 2014 11:29 am

Stephen until now we ( here in bristol) have had weather that is 4C above average for january, our lowest temp this month is above 6C which is a normal daytime high in january.
What you describe is normal January weather, nothing more nothing less, nasty, but certainly not severe.
Its still possible i will get away with the entire month frost free, although I suspect tomorrow night will stray slightly below freezing to spoil that incredible run of january weather with no cold.
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Yorkshire Kris
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Re: General Potential for Cold increasing.

Post by Yorkshire Kris » Wed Jan 29, 2014 12:45 pm

Nigel wrote:Stephen until now we ( here in bristol) have had weather that is 4C above average for january, our lowest temp this month is above 6C which is a normal daytime high in january.
What you describe is normal January weather, nothing more nothing less, nasty, but certainly not severe.
Its still possible i will get away with the entire month frost free, although I suspect tomorrow night

will stray slightly below freezing to spoil that incredible run of january weather with no cold.
Agree, it's been normal to mild all winter. The "cold" doesn't look like its coming tommorrow as was forecast. Maybe down to -1 or maybe staying a few degrees above freezing. Certainly not what I would call proper cold spell.

Thank you Stephen for bringing this topic up because it did look like a possibility but it seems that it's going to be milder than first thought. icon_sunny icon_sunny


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