Mildest winter 2013/14??

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stephenprudence
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Re: Mildest winter 2013/14??

Post by stephenprudence » Wed Feb 26, 2014 2:40 pm

billdango wrote:
But I warn everyone on this forum to be very wary of March as some cold nights can still occur as its not to late for a spell of those dreaded north easterlies?

billdango :D
To be honest I can't see it this year, the patterns looks benign, and there's no upstream signals, suggesting a pattern change. I think we are fairly safe. Yes we may get the odd frost in March, but everyone sees frost at some point during March so that's not unusual.

I'd say with confidence, that we're past the danger time.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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billdango
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Re: Mildest winter 2013/14??

Post by billdango » Wed Feb 26, 2014 2:56 pm

stephenprudence wrote:
billdango wrote:
But I warn everyone on this forum to be very wary of March as some cold nights can still occur as its not to late for a spell of those dreaded north easterlies?

billdango :D
To be honest I can't see it this year, the patterns looks benign, and there's no upstream signals, suggesting a pattern change. I think we are fairly safe. Yes we may get the odd frost in March, but everyone sees frost at some point during March so that's not unusual.

I'd say with confidence, that we're past the danger time.
To be honest Stephen I can,t see any long term change at the moment but having grown exotics for 40 odd years my diaries recorded some bad losses during the Months of March and April and twice in early May. :( :(

The British climate I sometimes think has a mind of its own and seems to know just when everyone has planted out their exotics and just loves to catch you all out and it only takes one cold clear night to do it. :ahhh!:

But don,t worry everyone I will watch out for all of you as after this so far mild winter I don,t intend to lose anything now. icon_thumleft icon_thumleft

billdango icon_sunny icon_sunny


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Deedee
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Re: Mildest winter 2013/14??

Post by Deedee » Wed Feb 26, 2014 3:05 pm

I will never forget 23rd feb 2013, I thought winter was just about over and looking forward to spring, i mean, come on, March 1st was only 6 days away :D

I woke upto this, I was devestated...

Image


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Dave Brown
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Re: Mildest winter 2013/14??

Post by Dave Brown » Wed Feb 26, 2014 3:19 pm

This was 12th March 2013 :ahhh!:

Snow blasted in on strong NE winds. Windchill was below freezing most of the month with lowest -12.7°C.
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stephenprudence
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Re: Mildest winter 2013/14??

Post by stephenprudence » Wed Feb 26, 2014 3:23 pm

Not much chance of these instances happening again in the next 2 weeks at least.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


Nigel
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Re: Mildest winter 2013/14??

Post by Nigel » Wed Feb 26, 2014 11:01 pm

Yes and dont forget spring gets a head start because ground temperatures in europe are way above average. The cold is an unusually long way away , sea temps are high , and we remain set in a westerly pattern.
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otorongo
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Re: Mildest winter 2013/14??

Post by otorongo » Wed Feb 26, 2014 11:14 pm

Nigel wrote:sea temps are high
I checked the Brighton sea temps out of curiosity, and wow...
Today's Brighton sea temperature is 9.9 °C.

Statistics for 26 Feb (1981–2005) – mean: 7.4 °C, range: 4.8 °C to 9.0 °C
http://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Brighton_1/seatemp

That's 2.5C above average. Quite impressive for sea temps as water has high thermal mass so reacts very slowly and reflects the air temps over the past few months (but also sea currents...).


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Exotic Life
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Re: Mildest winter 2013/14??

Post by Exotic Life » Thu Feb 27, 2014 11:20 am

billdango wrote: But I warn everyone on this forum to be very wary of March as some cold nights can still occur as its not to late for a spell of those dreaded north easterlies?
March is starting cooler indeed, however I always don't really mind light frost in March because a stronger sun and shorter nights, of course exept the extreme situations.

Gfs is shown very springlike weather furtheron. Hopefully it will stay in the models as everyone could use some early spring weather.


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