No end in sight.

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stephenprudence
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No end in sight.

Post by stephenprudence » Wed Feb 12, 2014 11:38 pm

I know people are expecting the storms to pretty much just end after this one, Nigel for example expects it to calm down, but I'm seeing the potential for more storms.

First of all we have one on Friday into Saturday, this storm could be as bad as this one, because it is long lasting, potentially.. we have a strong southerly windfield, which then becomes westerly, meaning more areas are affected potentially.. expect this one to wind up ad produce a vicious storm.

Then we have more small storms before the next major storm showing up on the models the Thursday after which if broadly correct could bring severe winds to western areas.. Ive never seen a storm this far out in the models show rapid cyclogenesis before.. this means it may be far out but we must keep an eye on it. More staggeringly, the longer range forecasts keep pumping storms in.. which at such a time frame just doesn't happen normally.

So anyone expecting it to calm down.. I'm sorry to say this actually looks unlikely as it stands.

I'm actually amazed the Atlantic has this much energy to utilise.
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USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
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Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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Re: No end in sight.

Post by GREVILLE » Wed Feb 12, 2014 11:45 pm

Oh,oh! :cry:


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Re: No end in sight.

Post by Nigel » Thu Feb 13, 2014 7:49 am

stephenprudence wrote:I know people are expecting the storms to pretty much just end after this one, Nigel for example expects it to calm down, but I'm seeing the potential for more storms.
Excuse me Daily Express but,
1. Can we PLEASE stop with the daily daily express headlines, they are doing my head in and the weather is bad enough.
2. Stop misquoting me, I said repeatedly AFTER the weekend.
3. I didnt say the depressions would stop, I said normal atlantic weather next week, which means depressions and some wind ,but not massive storm after massive storm.

I think your penchant for headlines is starting to go too far, you seem to revel in this miserable weather. I am trying to look for good news and be positive and you just want to make everybody feel low all the time with more doom and gloom.
anyway i am out of here, i am going to leave the forum to Stephens over dramatised daily express forecasts because its not doing me any good reading them.

When people are at the end of their tether they dont want a stream of bad news written for maximum drama ,they want some good news, and if you can read the weather as you claim you must surely know that next week is better without storm force winds. You only have to compare the warning map from met office with the one from the guy running weather from his garage which was bandied about on here to see how things get exagerated. Its important to get things correct not to turn it into a soap opera when everybody is sick of it.
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Re: No end in sight.

Post by ourarka » Thu Feb 13, 2014 8:33 am

Nigel - I for one sincerely hope you don't leave this forum. I am not going to comment on other posters, but as I am sure many would agree, I really enjoy reading all the weather posts (probably check those more than the plant info itself .... especially at this time of the year) and with it being such a fascinating, and fairly subjective topic, in which multiple conclusions can be drawn from fairly similar data, the presence of differing opinions makes it all the more valid and interesting.


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Re: No end in sight.

Post by flounder » Thu Feb 13, 2014 9:57 am

Mr Daily Express :lol:
No need for this to degenerate into a bun fight. An expression of differing views and the interpretation of any info gleaned from various sources is what makes our weather so interesting.
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Re: No end in sight.

Post by Dave Brown » Thu Feb 13, 2014 10:07 am

Nigel wrote:
stephenprudence wrote:I know people are expecting the storms to pretty much just end after this one, Nigel for example expects it to calm down, but I'm seeing the potential for more storms.
Excuse me Daily Express but,
1. Can we PLEASE stop with the daily daily express headlines, they are doing my head in and the weather is bad enough.
2. Stop misquoting me, I said repeatedly AFTER the weekend.
3. I didnt say the depressions would stop, I said normal atlantic weather next week, which means depressions and some wind ,but not massive storm after massive storm.

I think your penchant for headlines is starting to go too far, you seem to revel in this miserable weather. I am trying to look for good news and be positive and you just want to make everybody feel low all the time with more doom and gloom.
anyway i am out of here, i am going to leave the forum to Stephens over dramatised daily express forecasts because its not doing me any good reading them.

When people are at the end of their tether they dont want a stream of bad news written for maximum drama ,they want some good news, and if you can read the weather as you claim you must surely know that next week is better without storm force winds. You only have to compare the warning map from met office with the one from the guy running weather from his garage which was bandied about on here to see how things get exagerated. Its important to get things correct not to turn it into a soap opera when everybody is sick of it.
Nigel this is a discussion forum, so people will have differing opinions. Your interpretation of models is an end to the stormy weather, Stephen's interpretation is suggesting otherwise. Who is right and wrong will be born out in time.

The Met office has suggested that this stormy weather is linked to very warm, wet weather in Indonesia caused by warmer than average sea temps, buckling the Jet stream over the Pacific, and has displaced the Jet stream around the globe from there on. If that is the case it might suggest a long term situation.

I always thought this scenario was La Nina but we never hear these terms used now.

I'm sorry the Americans are fed up of snow, those in UK low lying areas are flooded, and those on coastal areas are wind and sea pounded, but the reality is until these ACTUALLY stop, whenever that is, those people had better be prepared for the worst.

I don't think the media frenzy is helping as they tend to paint as black a picture as possible.

Some of the longer term members on here may remember Darran (Jaques) He lives in Staines near the river Thames. He was posting on Twitter that the water was in his garden, then was up to his steps, then was up to the top of the steps, then 4" below his door sill, then his furniture was on bricks. He was awaiting sandbags, they hadn't been delivered, and the council wouldn't let him collect.

THEN he wrote
Darran Twitter.JPG
Councils need to take things seriously. Their petty nature has cost people their homes, and insurance companies £millions for which we will all pay.

My personal opinion is good news told will not be any good. People will want to see flood water recede. Their coastlines rebuilt etc.

The only possible glimmer of hope at this time, is that this is the worst flooding since 2003, and I remember 2003 for the belter of a summer we had, particularly 10th August, the hottest UK day since temperature records began.
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stephenprudence
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Re: No end in sight.

Post by stephenprudence » Thu Feb 13, 2014 10:37 am

Apologies Nigel if you though I said you specifically were saying it was going to calm down after this storm, yes it did read like that but that's not what i meant.. I meant you were one of the people suggesting it would calm down, and you're not the only one, there have been many.. fair enough, however I'm not seeing it. When I say storm, I mean rain, winds etc, however obviously rain is the biggest issue, and for now it doesn't look like calming down in that respect.

The issue is as well, if the jet loses momentum, but shows no sign of moving north or south, then rain is going to be slower moving, causing more issues. I'm not even convinced that after weekend we will see a respite.

You joke about Daily Express but lets be honest, the weather has been as close to a Daily Express headline as you can get in reality.. you always seem to play things down for some odd reason, like yesterdays storm.. and you DID play it down at first.. yet the damage was consistent with what the Met-Office expected, plus, unfortunately there were indirect fatalities from the storm, so it wasn't Express headline or whatever you want to call it.

You may see my 'Express' headline, as you call them as extremist crappe, but they've more close to reality of recent than you would like to think.. why would I do this unless there was extreme weather? Id say mass flooding and severe gales over the course of weeks, was extreme weather.

Also last point, lets be fair, at least I make an effort to pinpoint areas that might be affected.. I don't just go UK is going to get severe weather, I try to at least pinpoint areas where the weather might affect (for example the midlands, or southwest) etc.

Anyhow, I will not be replying to Nigel's unfounded criticism again.. I will however reply to your posts Nigel, without undue criticism and fair play but we have to get past petty arguments about optimistic and pessimistic posts. People do not want to be given false hope on the other hand.. I'm sure people will survive, despite the news that more rain is coming.

Let's leave it at that.
Last edited by stephenprudence on Thu Feb 13, 2014 10:44 am, edited 3 times in total.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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Re: No end in sight.

Post by Tom2006 » Thu Feb 13, 2014 10:39 am

Nigel wrote:
stephenprudence wrote:I know people are expecting the storms to pretty much just end after this one, Nigel for example expects it to calm down, but I'm seeing the potential for more storms.
Excuse me Daily Express but,
1. Can we PLEASE stop with the daily daily express headlines, they are doing my head in and the weather is bad enough.
2. Stop misquoting me, I said repeatedly AFTER the weekend.
3. I didnt say the depressions would stop, I said normal atlantic weather next week, which means depressions and some wind ,but not massive storm after massive storm.

I think your penchant for headlines is starting to go too far, you seem to revel in this miserable weather. I am trying to look for good news and be positive and you just want to make everybody feel low all the time with more doom and gloom.
anyway i am out of here, i am going to leave the forum to Stephens over dramatised daily express forecasts because its not doing me any good reading them.

When people are at the end of their tether they dont want a stream of bad news written for maximum drama ,they want some good news, and if you can read the weather as you claim you must surely know that next week is better without storm force winds. You only have to compare the warning map from met office with the one from the guy running weather from his garage which was bandied about on here to see how things get exagerated. Its important to get things correct not to turn it into a soap opera when everybody is sick of it.
Bit harsh Nigel. Stephen does post the possible extremes but no need to leave. Sounds like you have a case of the winter blues (like I have) but better to hear the worst possible then if its better we will feel better if not at least we are prepared. icon_thumleft
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Re: No end in sight.

Post by Conifers » Thu Feb 13, 2014 11:07 am

Dave Brown wrote:The Met office has suggested that this stormy weather is linked to very warm, wet weather in Indonesia caused by warmer than average sea temps, buckling the Jet stream over the Pacific, and has displaced the Jet stream around the globe from there on. If that is the case it might suggest a long term situation.
Just for a moment, I misread that as "might suggest a long term solution"

I wish! :lol:


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Re: No end in sight.

Post by cordyman » Thu Feb 13, 2014 1:12 pm

I read even the starkest most depressing posts with my rose tinted glasses on, I'm usually too optimistic to dwell. Stephen warned of yesterday's bad storm being the worst this winter, and here at least it was the worst I've ever witnessed, period. So good forecast there!

Nigel predicted we'd see a return to more of an average Atlantic pattern, come next week.. which also ties in with some of the weather Web videos I've been watching, and made me happy :-D

To summarise I enjoy reading both your posts.. but usually go away with an optimistic stance, yet realistic. So hope you both continue.

Nigel historically along with Tom are usually the first two members to bring good news of impending heatwaves, which helps with my 3 day weekend, part time at work summer strategy icon_thumright


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Re: No end in sight.

Post by Nigel » Thu Feb 13, 2014 2:43 pm

Suggest you watch end of this clip Stephen. Thank you BBC for voice of reason and confirming what i have been saying for last week instead of going daily express.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26169458

Gotta feel sorry for the USA too, not sure which is worst.
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Re: No end in sight.

Post by stephenprudence » Thu Feb 13, 2014 3:16 pm

Nigel, I understand that there is a glimmer of hope as he puts it, but the problem is the ground is saturated, it will take weeks without rain for that to drain away (realism), and then we are going to continue to get rain.. I'm not even sure it's going to settle down.

The fact is, and whether this is part of the updates, I don't know, but there are fresh waves of cold air forecast to be coming out of Northeast USA, which will continue to engage with the jetstream, so I think we will have more storms beyond the expected calm down, with more rain for the places that don't need it.. that's just the way it's working out, no one can blame anyone for this.

As for the US, yes I watched a few videos today, it really is extreme there, suburbs of Philadelphia have 2 feet of level snow, and later on it's going to rain, and all this will freeze solid.. there is much anxiety about this over there, as fatalities keep rising.

I cannot deny to myself this is the most extreme pan global weather in one to two seasons I have seen in my life..

- Droughts in SE USA
- Exceptional prolonged cold in Northeastern/Easterna/Mid and Southeastern USA
- Exceptional snowfall in eastern USA
- Big Ice storms in Eastern USA and Northwestern Balkan areas
- Record heat in Australia and also Droughts there too
- Big snowfalls in the Middle East earlier on in the Winter
- High Heat in some South American countries
- Rare snowfall in Vietnam and other parts.
- Strongest Typhoon on record hitting Philippines.
- Excessive warmth in Arctic Canada
- Perhaps Highest Winter rainfall on record in British Isles due to storms.

I'm sure this list is longer too.. it's been unbelievable.
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2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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Re: No end in sight.

Post by Nigel » Thu Feb 13, 2014 3:24 pm

stephenprudence wrote:Nigel, I understand that there is a glimmer of hope as he puts it, but the problem is the ground is saturated, it will take weeks without rain for that to drain away (realism), and then we are going to continue to get rain.. I'm not even sure it's going to settle down.

The fact is, and whether this is part of the updates, I don't know, but there are fresh waves of cold air forecast to be coming out of Northeast USA, which will continue to engage with the jetstream, so I think we will have more storms beyond the expected calm down, with more rain for the places that don't need it.. that's just the way it's working out, no one can blame anyone for this.
Then just tell it how it is and stop doing daily express dramatisations. I know the fresh cold air out of the US can cause more severe temperature gradients over the atlantic , but that wont be for at least a week and has not happened yet. Christ alive Stephen its terrible out there, stop exagerating what doesnt need exagerating, at this point in time even a week of normal atlantic weather will be welcomed as some respite and allow some essential repairs and flood drainage work to get done. I simply dont understand why everything has to be dramatised.
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Re: No end in sight.

Post by Dave Brown » Thu Feb 13, 2014 3:40 pm

Nigel wrote: Then just tell it how it is and stop doing daily express dramatisations.
How it is, is you are ALL guessing based on your interpretations of a computers guesses. :roll:

Met Office won't say anything more than 5 days out as they could be held accountable if their guesses are wrong

It is all speculation !!! so no point in falling out over it.
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Re: No end in sight.

Post by stephenprudence » Thu Feb 13, 2014 3:45 pm

Yesterdays storm was not exaggerated, it caused issues for people in it's path, I think I was right to say what I did, given members actually live in the path of the storm.

I still don't believe we will get a significant dry spell before March creeps in, but hopefully at least, some time for those waters to drain away and alleviate problems across the south between the lows.

It will eventually have to settle down of course it will, but as yet, I don't personally see a significant pattern change to allow that to do so, when I do, I will say so.

You say Daily Express dramatizations, but at the end of the day, it is clear that the weather were having at the moment is extreme, and every one of the warnings alluded to is valid. Just how extreme does it have to get for someone to accept that what we are having right now is exceptional? Ive never seen a Winter like this in my life.. ok 2007 came close for storminess, and 2003 came close for rainfall, but they both still don't beat this year for a combination of both events.

ps If you want some optimism, the very wet early-mid Winter of 2002/2003 resulted in it settling down in Spring, then we had our heatwave.

The stormy and wet nature of this Winter, will, I believe lead to a higher chance of a warmer and drier summer season, and provided our garden are still workable by summer, then that can only be an excellent outcome (and I have always had this thought)
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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