storm to hit more southern areas: 14/02/2014-15/02/2014)

stephenprudence

storm to hit more southern areas: 14/02/2014-15/02/2014)

Post by stephenprudence » Thu Feb 13, 2014 10:56 am

We've been getting a series of storms now, and so perhaps it's a good idea to set up another thread for the next storm to give information about that storm

This storm will be moving in from the SSW, moving mainly across southern areas. It's centre will track across Northwest England, then out into the North Sea, making a line for North Holland.

Winds will most likely be strong, although not as strong as yesterdays storm, and the far south coast, and southwest coast will see the strongest winds, in exposure, gusts of 60-70mph may occur, but it shouldn't be as bad in general.. inland winds will be nowhere near as strong, around gusts of 40-50mph, and further north the winds will be lighter still.. so any damage that does occur will be sporadic, and probably in the far south/southwest.

The biggest issue with the storm system, will be the rain, with both Friday and Saturday delivering heavy, and persistent rain to Southwestern, Southern Central and Southeastern counties,

The Met-Office gives a warning here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weat ... ionName=sw

But doesn't specify rainfall amounts, so I can only suggest anywhere between 30-50mm will be added on.

This is obviously not help flooding problems across the regions affected, although it has been said flood waters have receded a little, in some parts.

Anyhow that's the ins and outs of this particular storm

kata

Re: storm to hit more southern areas: 14/02/2014-15/02/2014)

Post by kata » Thu Feb 13, 2014 11:28 am

Thanks Stevie,

I expect some wind, plenty rain tomorrow.

:mrgreen:

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Re: storm to hit more southern areas: 14/02/2014-15/02/2014)

Post by Dave Brown » Thu Feb 13, 2014 12:28 pm

I tend to get 40+mph winds at this time of year anyway so the recent series of storms have just been 20% stronger, but from a totally different direction.

Feb is the month of NE gales normally, so results in our driest month of the year with LTA 38.2mm. This month so far (to 13th) I've had 72.14mm (188.85% of average)
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Kristen

Re: storm to hit more southern areas: 14/02/2014-15/02/2014)

Post by Kristen » Thu Feb 13, 2014 12:34 pm

Although no leaves on trees, to act as a sail, I think the waterlogged ground, followed by high winds, may find trees to blow down that would otherwise be happy at those wind speeds.

kata

Re: storm to hit more southern areas: 14/02/2014-15/02/2014)

Post by kata » Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:30 pm

I have to give much credit to my old Acer who stood very well in very high winds last evening...atta gurl.. :lol: :lol: :lol:

*bangs on desktop* will I ever find another Acer like my old one... :lol: It was twigs from Morrisons some years ago.

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stephenprudence

Re: storm to hit more southern areas: 14/02/2014-15/02/2014)

Post by stephenprudence » Thu Feb 13, 2014 5:14 pm

Just looked at the best available sources for tomorrow, the NNM model and the GFS model for tomorrows storm. It does seem a wider area may be affected than was originally expected this morning. This morning the southern areas (south of Birmingham) were going to see most of the wind and rain, but there seems to be a larger wind field now on the latest update, although the rain is still largely in a similar place at similar intensity.

So in summary, around 30-50mm of rain across the majority of southern England, with this pushing northwards through the day, pushing into Scotland by evening, where the heaviest rain will be in eastern Scotland, surprisingly.

The winds may extend as far north as Manchester, and the Cheshire plain region, where gusts may briefly touch 60mph. The South and Southwest will see the strongest winds, it general between 55 to 65mph, but the south coast could see gusts up to 85 to 90mph at the very tips for example Isle of Portland and some areas of the Isle of Wight.

John Hammond has said the storm could have a larger impact than yesterdays storm.. I assume he means by the larger wind field, affecting more areas, even if the wind isn't as strong as yesterdays storm (unlikely to breech 100mph in gusts), and of course the rain which will be more organised than yesterdays showery rainfall.

As it stands there are no squalls to go through but we won't know until tomorrow. At the moment Met Office have amber and yellow warnings, this should stay the same, though they might extend the Yellow/Amber warnings further north, and there is a very small chance they may introduce red warnings if a squall line comes into play but as it stands this is unlikely.

kata

Re: storm to hit more southern areas: 14/02/2014-15/02/2014)

Post by kata » Thu Feb 13, 2014 5:19 pm

Keeping fingers crossed its ok tomoz, I want to go out.

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stephenprudence

Re: storm to hit more southern areas: 14/02/2014-15/02/2014)

Post by stephenprudence » Thu Feb 13, 2014 5:28 pm

It should be fine to go out tomorrow for us 'up north', in fact I can't see an issue aside from southern coastal areas, where it probably wouldn't be advisable to go out, but for us, it's just going to be another miserable wet n windy day.. but today has been sunny in the main, and has felt Springlike at times.

On the other hand, on Thursday we could see our first widespread double figure maximums for some time, and now one of the models is showing a trend to a northerly moving jet stream, so in that scenario whilst still rainy at times, it would be warmer at least with some more sunshine presumably... hopefully that outlook gains some momentum, even though it's in dreamland at the moment.

Actually the GFS forecasts a Foehn for my area tomorrow afternoon as shown by the chart below :mrgreen:

Image

Blairs

Re: storm to hit more southern areas: 14/02/2014-15/02/2014)

Post by Blairs » Thu Feb 13, 2014 6:33 pm

where the heaviest rain will be in eastern Scotland

Oh the joy, it has been off and on all day here and gusts of wind blowing pots over. :x

kata

Re: storm to hit more southern areas: 14/02/2014-15/02/2014)

Post by kata » Thu Feb 13, 2014 9:58 pm

Thanks Stevie!

Cheer up Blairs, it can't last forever.

I was watching storm Britain, some interesting people speaking about the weather and just before they spoke the words I was thinking overlogging in Indonesia, Overlogging in the Amazan.

We need trees to soak up water and they also mentioned Indonesia after I did...strange.

http://hornbillunleashed.wordpress.com/ ... /08/10352/

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billdango

Re: storm to hit more southern areas: 14/02/2014-15/02/2014)

Post by billdango » Thu Feb 13, 2014 10:02 pm

At least my palm trees are having a good time as the constant thrashing of the leaves has killed off all the scale insects at last. :D

And my back garden still looks like it does in mid summer with no frost damage to report.

Even my Basjoos are still pushing out huge new center leaves.

billdango icon_sunny

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Re: storm to hit more southern areas: 14/02/2014-15/02/2014)

Post by Dave Brown » Thu Feb 13, 2014 11:26 pm

It's on it's way, and is large enough to be felt down in Madiera at the moment. Azores are getting a bit of a bashing.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/02/14 ... 44.44,1106
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stephenprudence

Re: storm to hit more southern areas: 14/02/2014-15/02/2014)

Post by stephenprudence » Thu Feb 13, 2014 11:39 pm

Impressive Dave, the storm system will be bringing warm air, which will engage with the colder air further north.. so some big gusts and large amounts of rain on the cards.. through all that, the far south may reach double figures as tropical maritime air gets into the system.

Interestingly Flores Island is only 9C at the moment thanks to a northerly.. thats pretty cold for the Azores Im sure!

RozDevon

Re: storm to hit more southern areas: 14/02/2014-15/02/2014)

Post by RozDevon » Fri Feb 14, 2014 8:43 am

Todays storm coming from the East thismorning.
Fierce gusts and monsoon amounts of rain.

kata

Re: storm to hit more southern areas: 14/02/2014-15/02/2014)

Post by kata » Fri Feb 14, 2014 10:06 am

Slovenia, wow you should see their weather,

Snow and ice have inflicted "the worst devastation in living memory" in Slovenia, bringing down trees, freezing electricity lines and causing millions of euros worth of damage.

South-western areas of the country have been hit hardest in what some are describing as a large-scale natural disaster.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 09425.html
slovenia-9.jpg


:( :( :(

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