Looks like a nice healthy Polar Vortex 22nd Dec 13

User avatar
Dave Brown
Site Admin
Posts: 19737
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:17 am
Location: Chalk, (Thames Estuary) Kent, England 51.5N 0.3E
Contact:

Looks like a nice healthy Polar Vortex 22nd Dec 13

Post by Dave Brown » Sun Dec 22, 2013 7:50 am

The Polar Vortex is almost slap bang over the North Pole giving a low pressure over Iceland and sits the jet stream over us. Could this mean a milder winter, or is it still to early to tell ?

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2013/12/22 ... verlay=off

The link is to 250hPa (jet stream level) with the Earth tilted to view down onto the North Pole. :wink:
Click and drag to move the earth :wink:
Best regards
Dave
icon_thumright
_________________________________________________
Roll on summer.....
http://www.hardytropicals.co.uk


User avatar
stephenprudence
Posts: 9028
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2008 8:40 pm
Location: Heswall, Wirral

Re: Looks like a nice healthy Polar Vortex 22nd Dec 13

Post by stephenprudence » Sun Dec 22, 2013 8:46 am

Depends, usually it will deliver cold zonality which features alternation between cold wintry weather and more seasonal weather. Should the sky clear and winds fall light, frost is more likely to be severe whe. The vortex is over us rather than to the north of us.. However also this means frosts are generally fewer as well.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


Nigel
Posts: 2468
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2007 8:16 am
Location: BACK IN BLIGHTY, BRISTOL
Contact:

Re: Looks like a nice healthy Polar Vortex 22nd Dec 13

Post by Nigel » Sun Dec 22, 2013 9:50 am

The weather this year is very 90,s , lets hope the horror winters are behind us now and its back to mild ones.
Hardypalms is now open http://www.hardy-palms.co.uk Discounts for HTUK members on request.


User avatar
Troppoz
Posts: 6099
Joined: Sat Mar 29, 2008 5:16 am
Location: Darwin Australia 12.6 degrees south

Re: Looks like a nice healthy Polar Vortex 22nd Dec 13

Post by Troppoz » Sun Dec 22, 2013 10:11 am

Dave Brown wrote:The Polar Vortex is almost slap bang over the North Pole giving a low pressure over Iceland and sits the jet stream over us. Could this mean a milder winter, or is it still to early to tell ?

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2013/12/22 ... verlay=off

The link is to 250hPa (jet stream level) with the Earth tilted to view down onto the North Pole. :wink:
Click and drag to move the earth :wink:
I see youve been playing with your new toy Dave icon_thumleft Literally hours of fun with that website! Its given me such a new insight into our planets atmosphere...

IS there a reason why youve turned the wind speed overlay off? icon_scratch
Sean


Conifers
Posts: 13147
Joined: Sat Jun 20, 2009 2:11 pm
Location: Northumbs

Re: Looks like a nice healthy Polar Vortex 22nd Dec 13

Post by Conifers » Sun Dec 22, 2013 10:30 am

Troppoz wrote:IS there a reason why youve turned the wind speed overlay off? icon_scratch
Easy to turn in back on and get the pretty colours back, just cut 'overlay=off' off the end of the url :wink:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2013/12/22 ... ,89.04,378


User avatar
Troppoz
Posts: 6099
Joined: Sat Mar 29, 2008 5:16 am
Location: Darwin Australia 12.6 degrees south

Re: Looks like a nice healthy Polar Vortex 22nd Dec 13

Post by Troppoz » Sun Dec 22, 2013 10:45 am

Or...you just click on "wind" in the menu :wink:

And its more than "pretty colours", its a visual representation of wind speed; blues and greens are low wind speeds while the reds and purples are high wind speeds. Makes it easier to judge wind speeds at a glance icon_thumright
Sean


User avatar
Dave Brown
Site Admin
Posts: 19737
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:17 am
Location: Chalk, (Thames Estuary) Kent, England 51.5N 0.3E
Contact:

Re: Looks like a nice healthy Polar Vortex 22nd Dec 13

Post by Dave Brown » Sun Dec 22, 2013 11:26 am

Troppoz wrote:
Dave Brown wrote:The Polar Vortex is almost slap bang over the North Pole giving a low pressure over Iceland and sits the jet stream over us. Could this mean a milder winter, or is it still to early to tell ?

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2013/12/22 ... verlay=off

The link is to 250hPa (jet stream level) with the Earth tilted to view down onto the North Pole. :wink:
Click and drag to move the earth :wink:
I see youve been playing with your new toy Dave icon_thumleft Literally hours of fun with that website! Its given me such a new insight into our planets atmosphere...

IS there a reason why youve turned the wind speed overlay off? icon_scratch
Yes it's great, thanks for the Christmas present.... had hours of fun with it already :lol:

I turned wind speed overlay off on this view as it was clearer to see the vortex in just black and white. The importance is that it is where it is and not sliding down towards UK :wink:
Best regards
Dave
icon_thumright
_________________________________________________
Roll on summer.....
http://www.hardytropicals.co.uk


User avatar
Dave Brown
Site Admin
Posts: 19737
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:17 am
Location: Chalk, (Thames Estuary) Kent, England 51.5N 0.3E
Contact:

Re: Looks like a nice healthy Polar Vortex 22nd Dec 13

Post by Dave Brown » Sun Dec 22, 2013 11:56 am

Another thing is it does forward projections for 4 days ahead.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2013/12/26 ... verlay=off

I notice the vortex is buckling away from us by Boxing Day and much of the cold looks to be spilling out across Northern Alaska.
Best regards
Dave
icon_thumright
_________________________________________________
Roll on summer.....
http://www.hardytropicals.co.uk


User avatar
Troppoz
Posts: 6099
Joined: Sat Mar 29, 2008 5:16 am
Location: Darwin Australia 12.6 degrees south

Re: Looks like a nice healthy Polar Vortex 22nd Dec 13

Post by Troppoz » Sun Dec 22, 2013 1:17 pm

Dave Brown wrote: I turned wind speed overlay off on this view as it was clearer to see the vortex in just black and white.
But I like the pretty colours... icon_colors
Sean


Tom2006
Posts: 8091
Joined: Thu Sep 30, 2010 11:23 am
Location: East Yorkshire UK

Re: Looks like a nice healthy Polar Vortex 22nd Dec 13

Post by Tom2006 » Sun Dec 22, 2013 1:31 pm

So does the Atlantic keep the vortex where it should be or vice versa?

The days are getting longer from today. .....good times!
Most wanted list - Any Young Trachycarpus and/or fern.


Nigel
Posts: 2468
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2007 8:16 am
Location: BACK IN BLIGHTY, BRISTOL
Contact:

Re: Looks like a nice healthy Polar Vortex 22nd Dec 13

Post by Nigel » Sun Dec 22, 2013 1:34 pm

Dave Brown wrote:Another thing is it does forward projections for 4 days ahead.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2013/12/26 ... verlay=off

I notice the vortex is buckling away from us by Boxing Day and much of the cold looks to be spilling out across Northern Alaska.
thats what i have been worrying about.........stratospheric warming usually means snow for the UK. And cold.
Hardypalms is now open http://www.hardy-palms.co.uk Discounts for HTUK members on request.


User avatar
fern Rob
Posts: 4901
Joined: Thu Dec 13, 2012 11:13 pm
Location: Nr Sheffield

Re: Looks like a nice healthy Polar Vortex 22nd Dec 13

Post by fern Rob » Sun Dec 22, 2013 5:37 pm

Let's make sure we are still prepared for a winter like 2010, we don't want all the plant casualties.
Rob
( Tree Fern hunter )


Tom2006
Posts: 8091
Joined: Thu Sep 30, 2010 11:23 am
Location: East Yorkshire UK

Re: Looks like a nice healthy Polar Vortex 22nd Dec 13

Post by Tom2006 » Sun Dec 22, 2013 7:49 pm

Nigel wrote:
Dave Brown wrote:Another thing is it does forward projections for 4 days ahead.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2013/12/26 ... verlay=off

I notice the vortex is buckling away from us by Boxing Day and much of the cold looks to be spilling out across Northern Alaska.
thats what i have been worrying about.........stratospheric warming usually means snow for the UK. And cold.
There are signs of some warming the stratosphere but all this can do is push cold air from the north south. No telling where it will be pushed to, afterall we are a pretty small piece of land.

I keep one eye on the weather forums and the weird cold lovers are desperately trying to find a sign of cold on the way. The best they can do at the moment is the first week of January, which although possible, is highly, highly unlikely and shows how set the current Jet pattern is. icon_thumleft
Most wanted list - Any Young Trachycarpus and/or fern.


GREVILLE
Posts: 2866
Joined: Sat Jan 22, 2011 10:39 am
Location: South London

Re: Looks like a nice healthy Polar Vortex 22nd Dec 13

Post by GREVILLE » Sun Dec 22, 2013 8:03 pm

Does the continuing fall in Northern hemisphere sea temperatures through the winter interfere with the vortex? Gain in daylight hours certainly can't intrude on it's behaviour yet. Today, we've only gained one second of daylight over yesterday.


Tom2006
Posts: 8091
Joined: Thu Sep 30, 2010 11:23 am
Location: East Yorkshire UK

Re: Looks like a nice healthy Polar Vortex 22nd Dec 13

Post by Tom2006 » Sun Dec 22, 2013 10:14 pm

GREVILLE wrote:Does the continuing fall in Northern hemisphere sea temperatures through the winter interfere with the vortex? Gain in daylight hours certainly can't intrude on it's behaviour yet. Today, we've only gained one second of daylight over yesterday.
I don't think it will. There is a current school of thought that the vortex solidity is due the sea ice and its formation and total coverage....but no one really knows. Over the last few years people have started to monitor sudden Stratospheric warming, which is believed to displace the cold air from the arctic south, but again no one really knows.
Most wanted list - Any Young Trachycarpus and/or fern.


Post Reply