Potential early warning (better to be safe than sorry)

[Tom2006]

Wet cold is worse. But once the temps start diving below -3C then many of our plants will suffer without protection.

[Nigel]

basically then,Steve was right to be concerned on monday when he said we COULD get a long cold spell

I think we are all a bit paranoid after 2010 , there is no sign of severe cold right now. I do share the nagging worry that Stephen has though.

[Tom2006]

I would argue that there are significant signs of severe cold in the first week of December. However, thankfully the probability of this actually happening is currently low, BUT, the signs are there and some weather models are predicting some very cold weather from the east and north east.

[redsquirrel]

that is good enough for me to have a nagging worry.
im useless at predicting what MIGHT happen, if prepared,its no loss if it doesnt occur yet if it did,would be more losses because i didnt listen to you three.
well done all of you,
with the price of living the way it is,exotic gardening is hard to finance,better to look after what you have than have nothing to look after next year.
fingers crossed it all reverts back to normal,i will be ready if it doesnt though
who knows,it could get nasty after new year still,i wont have to faff about in january snow

[Nigel]

I think once you get to xmas you can relax a bit because then you can only get `normal` weather . Its the unknowns re the ADA, melting arctic ice that are affecting early winter weather that give me the heebie jeebies.
Still looks a positive long term forecast for me though, not certain, but no sign of severe cold.

[dk]

Next weekend looks a bit worrying, easterly winds with daytime highs around 0 and night time lows down to minus 5 for most places around here. Could just be the models being a bit pessimistic again, but if not I'm hoping my microclimate helps out a bit... Easterlies are the worst, no or little benefit from the warm sea at this time of year

[Tom2006]

Next weekend looks a bit worrying, easterly winds with daytime highs around 0 and night time lows down to minus 5 for most places around here. Could just be the models being a bit pessimistic again, but if not I'm hoping my microclimate helps out a bit... Easterlies are the worst, no or little benefit from the warm sea at this time of year

It does look like being cold next weekend.

[Nigel]

I dont think the GFS 12Z could have been much better, sure some mild frosts next weekend ,but for early december it could be much much worse, and 10 days + out it looks positively balmy with temps up to the low teens.
I cant see any hint of severe weather in the charts at all.

[JakoMonster]

I dont think the GFS 12Z could have been much better, sure some mild frosts next weekend ,but for early december it could be much much worse, and 10 days + out it looks positively balmy with temps up to the low teens.
I cant see any hint of severe weather in the charts at all.

on BBC weather ahead is showing cold tempature.

[ourarka]

but for early december it could be much much worse, and 10 days + out it looks positively balmy with temps up to the low teens.

So do you mean early December looks good, or bad, or both?!

[Nigel]

A bit of cold coming, below average but nothing serious then it looks extremely mild.

[billdango]

As I posted earlier?
No cold spell is forcasted in the near future for Southampton at least.

But I will keep a very close ear on the weather reports over the next week or so.

Its not that unusual to get a week or 2 of frost and biting easterlies any time in the UK from late November till at least Mid April and 2010 was extraordinary for the south coast and most other places in the UK.

Now I know that most of us exotic growers get that cold sweat of fear whenever some newspaper comes up with a story [that hasen't happened yet] about the coldest winter for 100 years.

I think that we have all heard this bumff time after time and untill it happens just keep those hot water bottles and covers ready and wait on the event.

As for me?
I will just put the cat out at night as always and not lose any sleep over it.

billdango

[Tom2006]

The models have only flipped around today and could easily flip back. But at present as we move into the second week in December the models are wanting to bring in some nice mild weather.

[Dave Brown]

The models have only flipped around today and could easily flip back.

Which is why I wait for the 5 day and more importantly the 2 day forecast.

[otorongo]

Wunderground giving us a dreaded -4 Thursday night, WeatherOnline ground Tmins down to -5 Saturday night.